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Commodity sector - What's behind the slide? - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ noted the downturn in commodities.
Key Quotes:
"What’s behind the recent slippage in commodity prices? Is it market positioning, the high USD, the impact of weak global demand, increased potential commodity supply, or the unwinding of the QE premium with the Fed on track to hike rates?
"Whatever the case, a CRB index hovering around 13 year lows and oil prices close to seven year troughs suggest that commodity producers in general are doing it tough. That said, price falls do represent a windfall to consumers and downstream users.
The close to 30% fall in USD oil prices since the start of the year presents a major deflationary impulse, keeping aggregate inflation and bond yields low and the Fed in front of the curve and not behind it. Low global yields have undoubtedly supported equity values, which have eased only modestly in recent weeks, despite the increasing odds of a Fed hike (78% at last count)."
Key Quotes:
"What’s behind the recent slippage in commodity prices? Is it market positioning, the high USD, the impact of weak global demand, increased potential commodity supply, or the unwinding of the QE premium with the Fed on track to hike rates?
"Whatever the case, a CRB index hovering around 13 year lows and oil prices close to seven year troughs suggest that commodity producers in general are doing it tough. That said, price falls do represent a windfall to consumers and downstream users.
The close to 30% fall in USD oil prices since the start of the year presents a major deflationary impulse, keeping aggregate inflation and bond yields low and the Fed in front of the curve and not behind it. Low global yields have undoubtedly supported equity values, which have eased only modestly in recent weeks, despite the increasing odds of a Fed hike (78% at last count)."
Author
Ross J Burland
FXStreet
Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.
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