Everywhere I look, traders are screaming, "crash" [Video]

Me?

I'm a little more conservative.

At the moment, I simply don't believe we're about to see a major crash in the US stock markets.

A correction?

Possibly.

A crash?

I'm not convinced.

If the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones were genuinely ready to collapse, they've already had plenty of opportunities to do so.

Instead, every meaningful decline has behaved like a boomerang.

That tells me something.

Yes, I'm looking at the charts.

But after 44 years of trading, you also develop something that can't be taught.

Instinct.

Call it gut feeling.

Call it experience.

Call it trader's intuition.

Whatever you call it, mine is telling me something doesn't quite fit the current bearish narrative.

Technically, the recent corrections haven't even reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the last pullback held comfortably above the 23.6% level.

That isn't normally the behaviour of a market preparing for a major collapse.

Could we see further corrective moves?

Absolutely.

Markets never move in straight lines.

But at the moment, I see a market consolidating rather than capitulating.

As we head towards the US midterm elections, I also believe there are broader forces influencing market sentiment. Whether you agree or disagree with that is entirely your choice, but I always try to consider the bigger picture alongside the charts.

We're also entering what traders often call the "Silly Summer Season."

Liquidity falls.

Volumes thin out.

Markets can become either incredibly volatile... or incredibly dull.

There's an old saying:

"Buyers Beware."

Today, I'm saying exactly the same thing to sellers.

Sellers Beware.

A decisive close above the recent all-time high around 30,773 would put many bears under serious pressure.

If you're a day trader, there will still be opportunities on both sides of the market.

But from a longer-term technical perspective, I don't see a market rolling over.

I see one catching its breath.

Markets rarely turn into major bear markets from prolonged sideways consolidation.

More often, it's simply the pause before the next move.

So before you join the crowd...

Take a breath.

Study the charts.

Think for yourself.

Because following the herd is rarely good for your confidence...

...and even worse for your trading account.