The US Dollar (USD) has fallen since last week’s milder-than-expected inflation data. Nonetheless, economists at UBS expect the greenback to stay on a solid foot, for the time being, dragging EURUSD and GBPUSD down to 1.00 and 1.10, respectively.
Near-term risks remain tilted toward a stronger US Dollar
“We think the near-term risks remain tilted toward a stronger US Dollar (USD). We continue to rate the greenback as most preferred in our foreign exchange strategy, alongside the Swiss Franc, another safe-haven currency.”
“We think there is a high chance that risk aversion will return and recommend investors prepare for another drop below parity for the Euro (EUR) and Cable to fall toward 1.10.”
“We also recommend selling upside risk in EURUSD and the downside risk in the US Dollar versus the Yen as a short-term yield-enhancement strategy, given the pick-up in foreign exchange volatility.”
EURUSD could be trading in a 0.95-1.05 range for most of 2023 – ING
A bullish leap of faith on the Euro is too dangerous, in the opinion of economists at ING. They expect the EURUSD pair to be in the 0.95-1.05 range for most of the next year.
Market’s bromance with the Dollar will continue for a while yet
“We are bearish on EURUSD into the end of the first quarter of 2023.”
“Recession in Europe means that EURUSD could be trading in a 0.95-1.05 range for most of the year, where fears of another energy crisis in the winter of 2023 and uncertainty in Ukraine will hold the euro back.”
“The sufficient condition for a EURUSD turnaround is the state of affairs amongst trading partners. Are they attractive enough to draw funds away from US Dollar cash deposits potentially paying 5%? That is a high bar and why we would favour the EURUSD 2023 recovery being very modest, rather than the ‘V’ shape some are talking about.”
Euro to US Dollar could retrace the majority of the 2021-2022 decline – BofA
Economists at the Bank of America Global Research discuss EURUSD's technical outlook. In their view, a dip towards parity followed by a bounce to 1.0350/75 would confirm a head and shoulders top.
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