EUR/USD: Vulnerable to near-term corrections – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) experienced non-negligible volatility after the European Central Bank announcement on Thursday. Economists at ING analyze the EUR/USD outlook.

US NFP will determine the direction for EUR/USD

The core of the ECB’s communication did not change. The new round of projections sounded quite encouraging from an easing standpoint: inflation was revised marginally lower and projected at 2.0% in 2025, while the growth forecasts were also revised lower. However, President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is not confident enough about disinflation and that more information will be received in April and especially in June.

EUR/USD is trading close to the top of the range which is consistent with such a wide short-term rate gap (-125 bps in the two-year swap market). That means that it can be vulnerable to near-term corrections, but also that it is starting from a good level should US rates enter a decisive dive.

Today, US Nonfarm Payrolls will determine the direction for EUR/USD: expect some resistance at the key 1.1000 level should the Dollar decline further today.

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FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

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