EUR/USD picks up following weak US ADP employment data
- The Euro returns to levels right above the 1.1600 level after bottoming around 1.1580.
- US businesses continued laying off workers in October, according to ADP employment data.
- US Factory Orders bounced up in August, retracing July's contraction.
EUR/USD returns to levels above 1.1600 at the time of writing, after bouncing from weekly lows right below 1.1580, and turns positive on daily charts. The pair has drawn some support from downbeat US employment data, but traders remain reluctant about placing large US Dollar (USD) shorts, ahead of a backlog of US economic reports due later this week.
US private employment data released on Tuesday revealed that businesses shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on November 1. This is a better figure than the 11,250 average posted the previous week, but still reflects a weakening labour market, and adds pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further in the coming meetings.
On the positive side, US Factory Orders delayed data revealed a 1.4% increase in August, in line with the market consensus, to offset the 1.3% decline seen in the previous month. The impact of this data on the US Dollar, however, was minimal.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr is speaking at the moment, and later on, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will take the stage. Investors, however, are likely to remain cautious, ahead of September's Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Thursday.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.32% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.21% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.22% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.25% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.32% | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.31% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.26% | 0.05% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.01% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.31% | -0.05% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.38% | -0.11% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Currencies waver within range amid cautious markets
- The Euro (EUR) recovers some of the previous losses but remains trading within a narrow range. Traders await more US data for a clearer picture of the US economy and the Fed's monetary easing prospects.
- On Monday, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index beat expectations with an increase to 18.7 in November, from October's10.7 reading and against market expectations of a deterioration to 6.0
- In the same line, Construction Spending rose 0.2% in August, according to a delayed release from the US Census Bureau, beating expectations of a 0.1% decline. Apart from that, July's reading was revised up to a 0.2% gain from the 0.1% contraction previously reported.
- August's factory orders are expected to bounce to a 1.4% increase, compared to the 1.3% decline seen in July, the last release before the US government shutdown.
- Apart from that, speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin might give some more clues about the outcome of December's meeting.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains under pressure with 1.1580 on sight
EUR/USD has returned above the 1.1600 level, but recovery attempts remain frail so far. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is attempting to cross above the key 50 level, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps posting red bars.
Looking from a wider perspective, the pair is retreating from a trendline resistance with session lows at 1.1580 still at a short distance. Further down, the November 7, 10, and 11 lows in the 1.1535-1.1545 area would come to focus, ahead of the November 5 lows, near 1.1470.
To the upside, a previous support area around 1.1610 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the top of the bearish channel, which now lies at the 1.1635 area. Above, the October 28 and 29 highs around 1.1670 would come into focus.
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change 4-week average
The preliminary ADP weekly estimate, released by Automatic Data Processing Inc, provides a four-week moving average of the latest total private-employment change in the US. Generally, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Nov 18, 2025 13:15
Frequency: Weekly
Actual: -2.5K
Consensus: -
Previous: -11.25K
Source: ADP Research Institute
The ADP weekly report provides the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America's largest payrolls provider, as the harbringer of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of Nonfarm Payrolls.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
