EUR/USD: The new comfort level is more likely to be between 1.04 and 1.05 – Commerzbank

The dovish tone seen in the FOMC Minutes weighed on the US Dollar. Economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.04 and 1.05.

Dollar under pressure again

“It should have been clear to many since the last Fed meeting at the beginning of November and the US inflation figures for October that the Fed would shift down a gear at some point with regard to the pace of interest rate hikes. But clearly many seemed to need the reminder from the Fed minutes to bring that back to mind. But perhaps some also got cold feet about entering the long Thanksgiving weekend in the US with a ‘too strong’ USD.”

“Obviously, the new comfort level (i.e. the new equilibrium price for the USD) is more likely to be between 1.04 and 1.05 against the backdrop of smaller Fed rate hikes in the near future. Which is why the Dollar's brief rally is already over.”