EUR/USD trades with caution due to ECB dovish bets, upbeat US Dollar
- EUR/USD remains on the backfoot near 1.0950 as the Fed is expected to follow a gradual rate-cut approach.
- US labor demand remained robust and wage growth increased in September.
- ECB’s Villeroy supported another interest rate cut on October 17.
EUR/USD struggles to gain ground near the key support of 1.0950 in Monday’s North American session. The major currency pair remains on the backfoot as the US Dollar (USD) clings to gains near a fresh seven-week high, prompted by surprisingly upbeat Friday’s United States (US) labor market data for September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to 102.50.
The US employment report showed a resilient labor demand and strong wage growth. As per the report, the economy added 254K non-farm jobs, which was significantly higher than the estimates of 140K and the former release of 159K, upwardly revised from 142K. The Unemployment Rate decelerated to 4.1% from expectations and the August print of 4.2%.
Upbeat employment data forced traders to push back market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) again in November. The Fed started its policy-easing cycle with a larger-than-usual interest rate cut by 50 bps in September.
Meanwhile, renewed fears of inflation remaining persistent after the release of the hotter-than-expected Average Hourly Earnings for September also expunged Fed large rate cut bets. Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 4.0% year-over-year. Month-on-month wage growth measure rose by 0.4%.
For more clarity on the interest rate outlook, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Thursday.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains under pressure as US Dollar holds gains
- EUR/USD remains vulnerable near 1.0950 in North American trading hours. Apart from the upbeat US Dollar, uncertainty over the Euro’s (EUR) outlook has also kept the pair on the backseat. The Euro’s outlook has become uncertain amid increasing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in its monetary policy meeting on October 17.
- Large dovish ECB bets for October have been prompted by growing risks that inflation in the Eurozone could stabilize below the bank’s target of 2%. Annual Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 1.8% in September, according to flash estimates.
- The economic outlook of Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, is weak due to soft demand. The German economy is forecasted to have shrunk by 0.2% annually for the current year by the ministry, led by Robert Habeck of the Green party, newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported on Sunday.
- Meanwhile, ECB policymaker and French Central Bank Chief François Villeroy de Galhau also emphasized the need to cut interest rates again this month, told to La Repubblica over the weekend. Villeroy said, "In the last two years our main risk was to overshoot our 2% target." "Now we must also pay attention to the opposite risk, of undershooting our objective due to weak growth and a restrictive monetary policy for too long," he added.
- On the economic data front, Eurozone Retail Sales expanded but missed expectations in August. Annually, Retail Sales rose by 0.8% after contracting by 0.1% in July. Economists expected Retail Sales to have grown by 1%. Month-on-month Retail Sales rose expectedly by 0.2%.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | 0.27% | -0.41% | 0.24% | 0.19% | 0.36% | -0.43% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | 0.39% | -0.34% | 0.32% | 0.23% | 0.41% | -0.40% | |
| GBP | -0.27% | -0.39% | -0.77% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.06% | -0.67% | |
| JPY | 0.41% | 0.34% | 0.77% | 0.65% | 0.60% | 0.73% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | -0.32% | 0.06% | -0.65% | -0.02% | 0.12% | -0.66% | |
| AUD | -0.19% | -0.23% | 0.16% | -0.60% | 0.02% | 0.24% | -0.58% | |
| NZD | -0.36% | -0.41% | -0.06% | -0.73% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.76% | |
| CHF | 0.43% | 0.40% | 0.67% | -0.03% | 0.66% | 0.58% | 0.76% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD weakens on Double Top breakdown
EUR/USD strives for a firm footing near the immediate support of 1.0950. The major currency pair is broadly under pressure as it has delivered a breakdown of the Double Top chart pattern formation on a daily timeframe. The above-mentioned chart pattern was triggered after the shared currency pair broke below the September 11 low of 1.1000.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00. A bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains below the same.
Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0900. On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 1.1075 and the September high around 1.1200 will be major resistance zones.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
