- EUR/USD has pierced the 200-hour moving average (HMA) resistance.
- Dovish Fed is weighing over US yields.
- US two-year yield has hit a 19-month low.
EUR/USD has cleared key resistance and may rise further in the European and US session, tracking the slide in Treasury yields, although bullish reversal may remain elusive as markets are now priced in for Fed rate cuts.
The shared currency found acceptance above the 200-hour moving average of 1.1265 a few minutes before press time and has retraced 50 percent of the drop from 1.1348 to 1.1181.
The rise could be associated with the broad-based US Dollar sell-off triggered by the US Federal Reserve's dovish forward guidance on interest rates and the resulting losses in treasury yields.
The two-year Treasury yield, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, fell to 1.711% in Asia, the lowest level since Nov. 20, 2017. The yield may extend losses in Europe, helping EUR/USD rise further toward 1.13.
That said, the EUR bulls will likely have a tough time forcing a bull breakout above the recent high of 1.1348, as the money markets are fully priced in for a Fed rate cut in July. Further, the markets have almost priced in another rate cut before the year-end.
The fact that the two-year yield is down 23 basis points on a month-to-date basis and 90 basis points on a year-to-date basis also indicate the markets have largely priced in additional easing. As a result, the upside in EUR/USD looks limited.
The pair's break above the 200-hour MA could be short-lived if gold rally stalls and the American dollar starts recovering ground against China's Yuan.
As of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1270, representing 0.40% gains on the day.
Technical Levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD failed just ahead of the 200-day SMA
Finally, AUD/USD managed to break above the 0.6500 barrier on Wednesday, extending the weekly recovery, although its advance faltered just ahead of the 0.6530 region, where the key 200-day SMA sits.
EUR/USD met some decent resistance above 1.0700
EUR/USD remained unable to gather extra upside traction and surpass the 1.0700 hurdle in a convincing fashion on Wednesday, instead giving away part of the weekly gains against the backdrop of a decent bounce in the Dollar.
Gold keeps consolidating ahead of US first-tier figures
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Bitcoin price could be primed for correction as bearish activity grows near $66K area
Bitcoin (BTC) price managed to maintain a northbound trajectory after the April 20 halving, despite bold assertions by analysts that the event would be a “sell the news” situation. However, after four days of strength, the tables could be turning as a dark cloud now hovers above BTC price.
Bank of Japan's predicament: The BOJ is trapped
In this special edition of TradeGATEHub Live Trading, we're joined by guest speaker Tavi @TaviCosta, who shares his insights on the Bank of Japan's current predicament, stating, 'The BOJ is Trapped.'