EUR/USD retreats from 1.1300 down to 1.1270s amid mildly improved market sentiment

  • The shared currency slides on Monday as market sentiment improves, as COVID-19 omicron variant worries ease.
  • Broad US Dollar strength across the board, weighing on the EUR/USD pair.
  • EUR/USD sellers, to resume the downward move, will need to break below the 200-hour SMA at 1.1271.

On Monday, the EUR/USD grinds lower during the New York session, trading at 1.12880 at the time of writing. Since the beginning of the Asian session, the shared currency edged lower as market sentiment improved on the back of positive news from South African health authorities. The greenback advances against most G8 currencies in the FX markets, except for the AUD and the CAD.

Friday’s price action was exacerbated by COVID-19 omicron news in conditions of thin liquidity after the observance of Thanksgiving. Furthermore, World Health Organization (WHO) authorities sounded the alarm with some countries banning flights from South Africa and some African countries. That would last unless scientists could prove that although highly transmissible, the new variant is not as dangerous as the delta. Until that news arrives, market participants will remain cautious, waiting for further information.

That said, the USD weakened across the board, with the US Dollar Index closing near the psychological 96.00, as investors scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve would hike rates three times in 2022, as money market futures have priced in just two increases, pushing the third one until 2023. That is due to assessing what the new coronavirus variant impact would be on the global economy.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the USD recovered some ground against the shared currency. Early in the Asian session, the EUR/USD broke below the 1.1300 figure, printing a daily low nearby the 50-hour simple moving average (HSMA) at 1.1258, though in the last couple of hours jumped above the 50 and the 200-HSMA, at current levels.

On the economic docket, the Eurozone unveiled the HICOP for Germany for November, which rose by 6%, higher than the 5.4% estimated. Meanwhile, across the pond, the US Pending Home Sales for October on a monthly basis increased by 7.5%, higher than the 1% expected.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook    

In the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD remained subdued, failing to gain traction further to the downside. Also, the low-yield status of the EUR helps it attain a “safe-haven” status, despite usually not being one of them, like the JPY, the CHF, and the greenback. That put a lid on the downward move, near the 50 and the 200-hour simple moving averages (HSMA’s), which acted as dynamic support.

However, to resume the downward bias observed in a higher time frame like the daily chart, USD bulls would need to push the pair below the 200-HSMA.
In that outcome, the first support would be the S1 pivot point at 1.1238. A break below the latter would expose the November 26 swing low at 1.1204, followed by the S2 pivot point at 1.1158.

On the other hand, the daily central pivot point at 1.1285 would be the first resistance. A breach above that level would expose crucial supply zones, like the 1.1300 figure, followed by the R1 resistance at 1.1365.


Today last price 1.128
Today Daily Change -0.0044
Today Daily Change % -0.39
Today daily open 1.1324
Daily SMA20 1.1418
Daily SMA50 1.1542
Daily SMA100 1.1669
Daily SMA200 1.1838
Previous Daily High 1.1324
Previous Daily Low 1.1206
Previous Weekly High 1.1324
Previous Weekly Low 1.1186
Previous Monthly High 1.1692
Previous Monthly Low 1.1524
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1279
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1251
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1245
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1167
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1127
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1363
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1402
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1481



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