EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1000 as geopolitics weighs on euro, hawkish Fed vibes boost buck

Despite multiple attempts so far this session, EUR/USD has not been able to break back above the 1.1000 level.
The euro shrugged off strong Eurozone PMIs with traders concerned about Russia’s new demand for energy payments in roubles.
The strong buck amid the Fed hawkish shift and safe-haven demand is also weighing on the pair.

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

Despite multiple attempts so far this session, EUR/USD has not been able to break back to the north of the 1.1000 level and is currently trading closer to session lows in the 1.0980 area, down about 0.25% on the day. The pair saw some strength in early European trade as a result of stronger than forecast flash Eurozone PMI figures for March, but this euro strength was short-lived, with traders very much still focused on the Ukraine war. The risks of an energy crunch in Europe has risen after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that unfriendly countries (including the EU) would have to purchase Russian energy (including gas) in roubles.

EUR/USD also finds itself weighed down by a broadly stronger US dollar which 1) reflects safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis and 2) reflects the recent hawkish shift in Fed communications and subsequent move higher in US yields. With the 21-Day Moving Average (now at 1.1034) continuing to act as a strong level of resistance, EUR/USD downside at this point feels more likely than a sustained break back towards last week’s highs in the 1.1100s. Bears will be eyeing a potential retest of recent near-1.0800 lows.

Ahead, US flash PMIs for March are out next at 1345 GMT followed by more Fed speak and given the hawkish shift seen by other policymakers who have spoken thus far, the recipe remains towards a stronger buck. Geopolitics, of course, remain a key theme to watch as well as the G7 and EU announcing tougher sanctions against Russia, and NATO announcing it will bolster its forces on its Eastern flank.

EUR/Usd

Overview
Today last price	1.098
Today Daily Change	-0.0025
Today Daily Change %	-0.23
Today daily open	1.1005

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.1039
Daily SMA50	1.1219
Daily SMA100	1.1279
Daily SMA200	1.1516

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.1044
Previous Daily Low	1.0964
Previous Weekly High	1.1138
Previous Weekly Low	1.0901
Previous Monthly High	1.1495
Previous Monthly Low	1.1106
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0995
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.1013
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0965
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0925
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0885
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1044
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1084
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1124

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bears await break below 100-day SMA support near 1.1665 area

The EUR/USD pair attracts heavy selling for the second straight day and dives to a nearly four-week trough, around the 1.1670 region, during the Asian session on Monday. Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the 100-day Simple Moving Average before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from a three-month top, or levels just above the 1.1800 mark touched on December 24.

GBP/USD falls toward 1.3400 near 50-day EMA

GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.3420 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 53 has eased from near overbought, indicating that momentum has cooled while remaining above the midline. RSI holds above 50, keeping a modest bullish bias.

Gold on fire at the start of the week on US-Venezuela tensions

Gold regains upside traction early Monday as flight to safety prevails on Venezuela turmoil. The US Dollar finds strong haven demand, caps Gold’s upside as focus shifts to US jobs data. Gold’s daily technical setup suggests that more upside remains in the offing.

Bulls firmly in control as Bitcoin breaks $93K, Ethereum and Ripple extend gains

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple extended their rallies on Monday, gaining more than 4%, 6%, and 12%, respectively, in the previous week. The top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization could continue to outperform, with bulls in control of the momentum.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.