EUR/USD Price Forecast: More downside likely below 1.1160

EUR/USD falls to near 1.1238 as the US Dollar regains ground.
The US Dollar bounces back as US bond yields recover.
Heightened French fiscal concerns to keep the Euro under pressure.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) is down 0.18% to near 1.1238 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar regains ground after a corrective move the previous day.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% higher marginally above 102.00.

The US Dollar Index corrected on Tuesday amid signs that the rally in United States (US) bond yields hit a pause. However, the US Treasury Yields have rebounded again and return above the 5.3% mark.

Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.

On the Euro front, heightened French fiscal crisis due to ballooning debt, which now stands at 119% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is expected to keep the major currency under pressure.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1238, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1376. Price action remains pressured after a steady series of lower closes, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 25 suggests oversold conditions that may slow the downside without yet altering the prevailing bearish structure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.1376, which caps recovery attempts and defines the level bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current downside pressure. Looking down, the downside pressure could intensify if the pair slides below the fresh yearly low near 1.1160.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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