EUR/USD Price Analysis: Surges eyeing a test of the 50-DMA

The EUR/USD rises close to 1% after a lower-than-expected US inflation report.
The shared currency failed to crack the 50-DMA early in the New York session.
From a long-term perspective, the pair is neutral-to-downward, but the one-hour chart keeps buyers hopeful once they clear 1.0344.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The EUR/USD rallies towards the 50-day EMA, reaching a five-week high of around 1.0366, amidst an upbeat sentiment, courtesy of lower-than-estimated US inflation. That, alongside investors’ scaling back odds of a 75 bps rate hike by the Fed, spurred a risk on reaction, with US equities soaring. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0303. up by almost 1%.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a daily chart perspective, the EUR/USD is still neutral to downward biased. However, buyers are gathering momentum, as shown by the Relative Strength Index, decisively breaking above the 50-midline for the first time since June 8, signaling buyers are stepping in. Nevertheless, sellers would get the upper hand until buyers reclaim the 50-day EMA at 1.0344.

In the one-hour time-frame, the EUR/USD rally appears to be losing steam, at the daily high at 1.0368, with the major retreating towards current price levels, at the R3 daily pivot. The fall might be attributed to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which advanced sharply towards overbought territory at 87 before exiting and sits at 64 as buyers take a breather. Therefore, the pair is upward biased in the near term.

Upwards, the EUR/USD’s first resistance would be the August 10 high at 1.0368. Once cleared, the next supply zone would be the 1.0400 figure, followed by the July 4 daily high at 1.0445.

EUR/USD Hourly chart

EUR/USD Key Technical Levels

Overview
Today last price	1.0311
Today Daily Change	0.0098
Today Daily Change %	0.96
Today daily open	1.0213

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0176
Daily SMA50	1.0353
Daily SMA100	1.0546
Daily SMA200	1.0915

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0248
Previous Daily Low	1.0188
Previous Weekly High	1.0294
Previous Weekly Low	1.0123
Previous Monthly High	1.0486
Previous Monthly Low	0.9952
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0225
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0211
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0185
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0157
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0126
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0244
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0275
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0303

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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