|

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair stalls near 20-day SMA despite mild bounce

  • EUR/USD edges higher on Wednesday, reaching 1.0335 as buyers attempt a comeback.
  • RSI climbs to 47, signaling a sharp pickup in momentum yet still residing in negative territory.
  • MACD histogram shows flat red bars, hinting that bullish traction remains tentative.

EUR/USD managed a modest rise to around 1.0335 on Wednesday, extending a cautious bid despite struggling to firmly overtake the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). While the pair has garnered some support following recent declines, the rejection at this technical barrier underscores lingering doubts over the sustainability of the recovery.

From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved to 47, an indication of reviving sentiment, yet it maintains a foothold in negative territory, suggesting that buyers still face headwinds. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat red bars, reinforcing the notion that bullish forces remain far from dominant.

For now, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-day SMA near 1.0350, where a decisive break could brighten the short-term outlook and open the door toward 1.0400. On the downside, failure to defend the 1.0300 mark may see sellers resurface, potentially dragging the pair toward 1.0270 or below.

EUR/USD daily chart

Author

Patricio Martín

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

More from Patricio Martín
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD edges above 1.1750 due to ECB-Fed policy divergence

EUR/USD has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data later in the day.

GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3450 on Fed rate cut bets, BoE's gradual policy path

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Friday. Expectations of the US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year weigh on the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is set to speak later on the weekend. 

Gold climbs to near $4,350 on Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical risks

Gold price rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. Gold finished 2025 with a significant rally, achieving an annual gain of around 65%, its biggest annual gain since 1979. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and safe-haven flows.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple enter the New Year with breakout hopes

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple entered the new year trading at key technical levels on Friday, as traders seek fresh directional cues in January. With BTC locked in a tight range, ETH is approaching its 50-day Exponential Moving Average, while XRP is nearing resistance. A clear breakout across these top three cryptocurrencies could help define market momentum in the opening weeks of the year.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).