EUR/USD Price Analysis: Oscillates around the 20-day EMA eyeing Friday’s US economic data

EUR/USD marches firmly towards 0.9800 on broad US dollar weakness, following a hot US inflation report.
EUR/USD’s failure to crack the 200-EMA in the hourly chart could send the pair diving towards 0.9700; otherwise, expect a test of 0.9900.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, though it faced solid resistance around the 20-day EMA at 0.9788, and finished the session with gains of 0.76% after hitting a daily low of 0.9631. As the Asian Pacific session begins, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9772, below its opening price, by a minimal 0.02%.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

The EUR/USD technical side depicts the major as downward biased. Since the end of February 2022, the EUR/USD dropped below the 20-day EMA, a dynamic resistance level that traders have been using. Even though the EUR/USD had spans trading above it, most of the time price stalled at the 20-day EMA and retraced to lower price levels. So failure to crack it could open the door for further losses. Therefore, the EUR/USD first support would be the October 13 low of 0.9631, followed by the 0.9600 figure, ahead of the YTD low at 0.9538.

Short term, the one-hour time frame depicts the EUR/USD bias as neutral. Of note, the major tested the 200-EMA during the day, but it could not surpass it. Hence, based on price action, the EUR/USD might consolidate around the 0.9774-0.9800 area, though failure to break the top of the range could pave the way for further losses.

Once the EUR/USD breaks 0.9800, key resistance levels lie at the R1 daily pivot at 0.9840, followed by the 0.9900 figure ahead of parity.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD first support would be the daily pivot point at 0.9740, followed by the confluence of the 50/100-EMAs around d0.9715/16, ahead of 0.9700.

Also read: EUR/USD makes a U-turn, climbing to daily highs nearby 0.9800 after hot US inflation

EUR/USD Key Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.9777
Today Daily Change	0.0074
Today Daily Change %	0.76
Today daily open	0.9703

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.9813
Daily SMA50	0.9967
Daily SMA100	1.0181
Daily SMA200	1.0594

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.9735
Previous Daily Low	0.9668
Previous Weekly High	1
Previous Weekly Low	0.9726
Previous Monthly High	1.0198
Previous Monthly Low	0.9536
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9694
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.9709
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9669
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9635
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.9602
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9736
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9769
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9803

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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