EUR/USD Price Analysis: Oscillates around the 20-day EMA eyeing Friday’s US economic data

EUR/USD marches firmly towards 0.9800 on broad US dollar weakness, following a hot US inflation report.
EUR/USD’s failure to crack the 200-EMA in the hourly chart could send the pair diving towards 0.9700; otherwise, expect a test of 0.9900.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, though it faced solid resistance around the 20-day EMA at 0.9788, and finished the session with gains of 0.76% after hitting a daily low of 0.9631. As the Asian Pacific session begins, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9772, below its opening price, by a minimal 0.02%.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

The EUR/USD technical side depicts the major as downward biased. Since the end of February 2022, the EUR/USD dropped below the 20-day EMA, a dynamic resistance level that traders have been using. Even though the EUR/USD had spans trading above it, most of the time price stalled at the 20-day EMA and retraced to lower price levels. So failure to crack it could open the door for further losses. Therefore, the EUR/USD first support would be the October 13 low of 0.9631, followed by the 0.9600 figure, ahead of the YTD low at 0.9538.

Short term, the one-hour time frame depicts the EUR/USD bias as neutral. Of note, the major tested the 200-EMA during the day, but it could not surpass it. Hence, based on price action, the EUR/USD might consolidate around the 0.9774-0.9800 area, though failure to break the top of the range could pave the way for further losses.

Once the EUR/USD breaks 0.9800, key resistance levels lie at the R1 daily pivot at 0.9840, followed by the 0.9900 figure ahead of parity.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD first support would be the daily pivot point at 0.9740, followed by the confluence of the 50/100-EMAs around d0.9715/16, ahead of 0.9700.

Also read: EUR/USD makes a U-turn, climbing to daily highs nearby 0.9800 after hot US inflation

EUR/USD Key Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.9777
Today Daily Change	0.0074
Today Daily Change %	0.76
Today daily open	0.9703

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.9813
Daily SMA50	0.9967
Daily SMA100	1.0181
Daily SMA200	1.0594

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.9735
Previous Daily Low	0.9668
Previous Weekly High	1
Previous Weekly Low	0.9726
Previous Monthly High	1.0198
Previous Monthly Low	0.9536
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9694
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.9709
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9669
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9635
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.9602
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9736
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9769
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9803

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD struggles to recover as hawkish Fed bets escalate

The Australian Dollar is under pressure against the US Dollar as traders have raised bets supporting interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, with the AUD/USD pair posting a fresh almost eight-week low at around 0.7025. Hawkish Fed bets have accelerated following the release of the surprisingly strong United States Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data for May.

USD/JPY holds higher ground toward 160.50 despite 'Yentervention' fears

USD/JPY holds higher ground toward 160.50 in Monday's Asian trading, despite intervention fears. Japan’s revised GDP print, which confirmed that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter, weighs on the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, Friday's upbeat US NFP report and fresh Israel-Iran attacks favor the US Dollar bulls, underpinning the currency pair.

Gold remains heavy near $4,300 on Mideast woes, Fed rate hike bets

Gold remains vulnerable near $4,300 in European trading on Monday, following a modest Asian bounce to the $4,350-$4,355 area. Renewed hostilities in the Gulf push Crude Oil prices higher, fanning inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. That weighs negatively on the Gold, as it mires in three-month lows.

Solana: ETF outflows and bearish sentiment reinforce downside risks

Solana (SOL) remains under pressure, trading below $66 on Monday after losing nearly 20% in the previous week. Institutional demand weakened with spot Exchange Traded Funds recording a net outflow of over $6.5 million last week, snapping a four-week streak of inflows.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.