EUR/USD: Potential return to positive rates later this year to support euro – CIBC

In the opinion of economists at CIBC Capital Markets, the pulling forward of rate hike expectations leaves the potential for rates to move back into positive territory prior to year-end, supporting the euro.

ECB remains mindful of repeating the policy mistake of 2011

“Any move back towards positive rates would not necessarily result in an immediate rush of capital. However, any marginal uptick in reserve manager EUR appetite would provide a more substantive underpinning of the currency, precluding fears over EUR/USD testing 2017 lows.”

“While real economy headwinds are growing, and we remain mindful of widening peripheral spreads, the window for policy adjustment may prove limited. Indeed, the ECB remains mindful of repeating the policy mistake of 2011. Nevertheless, a move early in H2, combined with the discussion of a potential return to positive rates, points towards EUR valuations proving to be supported in the near term, if not necessarily immediately boosted.”