- EUR/USD approaches the critical 200-day moving average, reflecting a cautious optimism in currency markets.
- Mixed Fed views and weaker US housing data contrast with ECB optimism on inflation and potential rate cuts.
- Upcoming US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence figures, to update economic outlook.
The Euro paired some of its Friday losses against the US Dollar, though it remains shy of reclaiming the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0839. The Greenback has lost its momentum and remains offered late in the North American session, despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' commentaries. The EUR/USD trades at 1.0837, gains 028%.
EUR/USD inches up as Fed officials and ECB commentary diverge
Earlier, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic projected one rate cut in 2024 if the US central bank embarks on slashing borrowing costs. Echoing some of his comments was Lisa Cook, with both adopting a cautious approach, emphasizing that easing policy prematurely could entrench inflation. On the dovish side, Chicago’s Fed Austan Goolsbee still sees three cuts in 2024, adding that they need to see evidence of inflationary declines.
US housing data was weaker than expected as New Home Sales slumped 0.3%, with sales coming at 0.662 million, below estimates of 0.675 million and January’s 0.664 million. Elsewhere, the Chicago Fed announced the National Activity Index saw improvement, moving from -0.54 to 0.05, with positive developments across all four index categories.
Across the pond, the Eurozone’s (EU) Consumer Confidence in Spain was almost unchanged, while European Central Bank (ECB) officials led by Mario Centeno said inflation has peaked. Fabio Panetta added that the EU’s inflation is quickly falling toward its 2% target, giving room to cut rates.
In addition, the EU’s docket will feature Consumer Confidence in Germany and the GDP release in Spain. On the US front, Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, and the S&P/Cas Shiller Home Price Index would shed some light on the economy's status.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The EUR/USD is forming a ‘bullish harami’ candle pattern that would need buyers to reclaim the March 22 high of 1.0868, so they could be poised to challenge 1.0900. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stills in bearish territory despite aiming slightly up, while the key 200-DMA caps the pair’s advance. If sellers moved in and dragged prices below last week’s 1.0806, that can expose 1.0800, followed by the February 14 low of 1.0694.
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