EUR/USD: Likely to consolidate between 1.1785 and 1.1865 – UOB Group

The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.1785 and 1.1865. In the longer run, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one for EUR to rise toward 1.1955, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

A small chance for EUR to rise toward 1.1955

24-HOUR VIEW: "On Tuesday, we expected a higher EUR. After EUR rose more than we expected, we indicated yesterday, Wednesday, that 'while the sharp rally appears excessive, strong momentum continues to suggest a higher EUR.' However, we pointed out that 'it remains to be seen if EUR can break above the next resistance at 1.1915.' In the NY session, EUR jumped to a high of 1.1918. However, the advance was brief, as EUR subsequently dropped sharply to a low of 1.1806. With the sharp drop, the immediate upward pressure has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1785 and 1.1865."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (16 Sep, spot at 1.1765), we highlighted that 'upward momentum is starting to build, and the odds of EUR breaking above 1.1790 are increasing.' EUR subsequently soared to a high 1.1878. Yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 1.1865), we stated that 'the is risk for EUR to continue to rise, and the level to watch is 1.1955.' EUR then rose to a high of 1.1918, but pulled back sharply to close at 1.1812, down by 0.46%. Shorter-term upward momentum is starting to fade, but overall, as long as 1.1760 holds, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for EUR to rise toward 1.1955."