EUR/NOK to edge down to 11.70 on a three-month view – Rabobank

In the year to date, the NOK is the weakest performing G10 currency. Economists at Rabobank analyze Krone’s outlook ahead of the Norges Bank meeting.

A hawkish hold appears very likely

Feasibly, policymakers could discuss at their meeting whether to hike rates one more time and signal that the cycle has peaked or to leave rates on hold and signal that another hike is possible. For choice, we would settle on the latter.

Insofar as the market consensus is already positioned in favour of steady rates and given the likelihood that other G10 central banks have also reached a peak in policy, the Norges Bank should be able to limit a sharp sell-off in the NOK with hawkish rhetoric. Market pricing suggests a 25 bps rate cut is priced in by the middle of next year.

We expect some pushback against this from the Norges Bank and expect EUR/NOK to edge down to 11.70 on a three-month view. Softer oil prices will likely limit scope for a greater recovery.