EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Retraces from weekly highs near 120 pips, hovers around 127.80s

The shared currency is set to end the week with gains, up some 1.94%.
A mixed-market mood dented appetite for the single currency, boosting the yen.
EUR/JPY Technical Outlook: Remains downward biased, unless EUR bulls reclaim 130.00.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The EUR/JPY plummets from weekly highs during the North American session amid a sudden risk-off market mood on news reporting that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela said that Russia talks had not shown any progress. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY is trading at 127.89.

Risk-aversion is back again, amid the lack of progress between Russia-Ukraine, as reflected by US equity markets trading in the red. In the FX space, the CHF and the JPY, safe-have peers trade mixed, but the JPY is stronger vs. the EUR due to the Eurozone implications in the conflict.

Overnight, the EUR/JPY bounced off the 127.50 area, rallying towards 129.00 influenced by a pure market sentiment play, once Russian President Putin admitted that talks had taken a positive turn. However, EUR/JPY traders faded the upward move, as depicted by the daily chart, with an “inverted-hammer” with a considerable 110-pip top-wick above the real-body, meaning solid selling pressure drove the pair lower.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY has remained above the bottom-trendline of a descending channel drawn since August 2021. In fact, it faced strong resistance at 129.00, but nose-dived, breaking on its way, crucial resistance/support levels like January 25 daily high at 128.25. Worth noting that the 50-day moving average (DMA) is about to roll under the 100-DMA, in which case, the DMAs would be in a perfectly bearish order, further cementing the downward bias.

That said, the EUR/JPY first support would be 127.51, December 20, 2021. Breach of the latter would expose the bottom-trendline of the descending channel around the 126.90-95 area, followed by 125.09, January 18, 2021 low.

EUR/JPY

Overview
Today last price	127.89
Today Daily Change	0.43
Today Daily Change %	0.34
Today daily open	127.46

Trends
Daily SMA20	129.01
Daily SMA50	129.82
Daily SMA100	129.78
Daily SMA200	130.11

Levels
Previous Daily High	128.88
Previous Daily Low	127.42
Previous Weekly High	129.78
Previous Weekly Low	125.07
Previous Monthly High	133.15
Previous Monthly Low	127.92
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	127.98
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	128.32
Daily Pivot Point S1	126.96
Daily Pivot Point S2	126.46
Daily Pivot Point S3	125.5
Daily Pivot Point R1	128.42
Daily Pivot Point R2	129.38
Daily Pivot Point R3	129.88

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD climbs to four-day highs near 1.3250

GBP/USD rapidly reverses Friday’s small losses and challenges the 1.3250 level, or four-day tops, at the beginning of the week. Cable’s upside comes on the back of further loss of momentum in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD extends the advance past 1.1400

EUR/USD starts the week on a positive note, trading above 1.1400 on Monday as broad-based US Dollar weakness lends support to the pair. In the meantime, investors continue to monitor developments surrounding efforts to end the US-Iran conflict, while attention gradually shifts to the ECB's annual forum and the US NFP data.

Gold falters just ahead of $4,100

Gold remains under modest bearish pressure just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal struggles to extend its recent gains as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revives inflation concerns and bolsters Fed rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin four-year cycle: BTC risks 75% drawdown with four months of bear market still ahead

Bitcoin price continues to trend downward below the $60,000 support zone after losing over 50% of its value since the $126,199 high in October. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, measured from cycle tops to bottoms, suggests that four months of a bear market are still ahead.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.