|

EUR/JPY advances beyond 200-day SMA and 163.00 mark; highest since January 27

  • EUR/JPY gains positive traction for the third straight day amid a broadly weaker JPY.
  • Hawkish BoJ expectations could limit JPY losses and cap the upside for spot prices. 
  • Traders might also opt to wait for the highly-anticipated BoJ decision on Wednesday.

The EUR/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers for the third straight day on Tuesday and climbs beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 163.35 area, or the highest level since January 27 in the last hour, and is sponsored by the offered tone surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The global risk sentiment remains well supported by the latest optimism over China's stimulus measures announced over the weekend to boost domestic consumption. Adding to this hopes for a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin further boost investors' confidence. This, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven JPY and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross.

Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year. The bets were reaffirmed by positive results from Shunto spring wage negotiations where firms largely agreed to union demands for strong wage growth for the third consecutive year. This, along with worries about a global trade war, should help limit deeper JPY losses.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ policy decision on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from a five-month low is seen exerting some downward pressure on the shared currency, which might contribute to keeping a lid on the EUR/JPY cross. Next on tap is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index.

Economic Indicator

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).

Read more.

Next release: Tue Mar 18, 2025 10:00

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 48.1

Previous: 26

Source: ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.