ECB still set to turn off QE taps despite political and trade risks - Reuters poll

According to a Reuters poll, all the economists polled unanimously that the European Central Bank (ECB) will unwind its quantitative easing (QE) program by end-Dec, despite ongoing political and trade tensions.

Key Highlights:

“All 70 economists who answered an additional question in the latest poll, taken before the Italian cabinet was due to meet on Monday to discuss its 2019 budget, said chances that the central bank would extend its bond buying program were low.

The latest Reuters poll of more than 80 economists taken on Oct 9-15 also found that euro zone inflation would languish below the central bank’s target until at least 2021.

The deposit rate will rise 15 basis points to -0.25 percent in the third quarter and the refinancing rate to 10 basis points from the current zero percent in the final quarter of 2019, according to the latest poll.

Euro zone economic growth is seen at 1.8 percent next year and at 1.6 percent in 2020, both unchanged from the previous poll.´

When asked about the likelihood of a euro zone recession in the next year, the median of 43 economists was 15 percent. For the next two years, the figure was 25 percent, unchanged from August’s poll.”