Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s September trade balance increased to $31.69bn (mkt $US19.2bn) as imports rose 14.3% y/y, slightly less than consensus, while exports were much stronger than expected at 14.5% y/y (mkt 8.2%).
“Some of this strength appears to be front loading ahead of tariff implementation. Recent data on exports orders suggests that this will not last. China’s rolling 12m trade surplus increased to $354.5bn while bilateral trade surplus with the US (over the last 12m) grew to $307.33bn, the largest on record. This will only raise the temperature in the US/China trade tensions. While there is clearly a strong element of front loading here, tariffs have yet to slow China's exports to the US.”
“China's surplus with the EU also grew to its highest since Dec 16 while the surplus with Asia continues to shrink at $42.5bn over the past 12m. This is a whopping 63% decline y/y.”
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