China: Checking the economy’s pulse with big data – Standard Chartered


Economists at Standard Chartered Bank (China) looked at some big-data and high-frequency indicators to gauge the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on China’s real economy.

Key quotes:

“The Baidu Migration Index is a helpful tracker of returning labour force and can be used as a leading indicator of real activity. Big data shows that in the 10 key cities/provinces we tracked, only c.30% of all migrant workers had returned to their workplace as of 10 February. However, a turning point seems to have been reached over the past weekend (based on the Daily Migration Index), with more people expected to get back to their workplace in the coming days. Still, real activity may recover only in late February (based on the Travel Intensity Index), when the quarantine period  for travellers is over.”

“We also found that the manufacturing sector had the lowest return ratio of migrant workers, while upstream energy producers were less affected. This suggests that the manufacturing sector could be significantly affected after the holidays, following the hit to the services sector during the holiday season. The delay in operations due to a lack of workers could also put significant pressure on small enterprises and exporters. Consumption has been hit hard, with severe disruptions to the catering and travel industries; we see no signs of a recovery yet. Online retail sales appear more resilient and fell for a shorter period; however, this cannot compensate for the loss in traditional retail sales. Daily average coal consumption for electricity production remains at low levels, suggesting weak production activity.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends sideways grind around 1.1650 after mixed US data

EUR/USD is struggling to find direction on Thursday and continues to fluctuate in a relatively tight range around mid-1.1600s. Mixed data releases from the US don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the greenback's performance against its major rivals.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD struggles to pull away from 1.3800

GBP/USD retraced a portion of Wednesday's during the European trading hours pressured by the renewed USD strength and the souring market mood. With the latest US data failing to trigger a reaction, the pair stays in a consolidation phase near 1.3800.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD struggles for direction, flat-lined above $1,780 level

The risk-off impulse in the markets extended some support to the safe-haven gold. Elevated US bond yields, a modest USD strength capped the upside for the metal. Bulls need to wait for a move beyond the $1,800 mark before placing fresh bets.

Gold News

Buying Solana now to gain 700% profits by 2022

Solana price has been on a massive run-up in 2021 from $1 to $216 in roughly eight months. This stellar climb is likely to continue into 2022 as significant bullish signs emerge. Moreover, the start of a new bull run will serve as a tailwind for SOL.

Read more

Netflix: Three reasons to sell NFLX after earnings

NFLX has been strong into earnings as investors digested the massive success of Squid Game and hoped this would feed through into very strong subscriber numbers. Netflix was out straight after the bell with earnings.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures