USD/JPY Price Forecast: Consolidating above 161.00 amid growing intervention risks
- USD/JPY remains steady around 1.61.30, with long-term highs at 1.61.95 in sight.
- The Yen is on the defensive amid rising bets of Fed rate hikes.
- Tokyo might intervene on Friday to take advantage of the thinned trading volumes amid the US Juneteenth festivity.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains offered against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and the USD/JPY pair stands comfortably around 161.30, its highest level since 2024, way beyond the level that triggered an alleged intervention on April 30.
Markets have remained oblivious to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to hike rates to 31-year highs earlier this week. Speculative traders have kept selling the Japanese currency, lured by rising bets that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to hike interest rates in the second half of the year.
On Thursday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minoru Kihara, reiterated that the authorities are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves “as needed at any time”. Tokyo tends to intervene in moments of thin liquidity, and, in this case, the Juneteenth bank holiday in the US provides a good opportunity.
Technical Analysis: The 40-year high, at 161.95, is at hand
USD/JPY trades at 161.26, holding a constructive bullish tone with no sign of a trend shift on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4-hour charts remains at 66.46, leaning toward overbought territory without yet flashing an exhaustion signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is modestly positive at 0.09, hinting that upside momentum is still in play.
On the topside, Thursday's high at 161.79 and the 40-year high at 161.95 are the main resistance levels. Further up, bulls might target the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 11-18 rally, at 162.38.
To the downside, the session low, at the 161.00 area, is holding bears for now, closing the path to Thursday's low, at 160.45, and the 160.00 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.19% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | 0.03% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.31% | 0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.25% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.01% | -0.10% | -0.05% | 0.22% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.17% | -0.22% | -0.31% | -0.25% | -0.22% | -0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | -0.19% | -0.22% | -0.32% | -0.26% | -0.25% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
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