Canadian Natural to report Q1 earnings: What's in the offing?

Canadian Natural Resources Limited is set to release first-quarter results on May 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 73 cents per share on revenues of $6.8 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of CNQ’s Q4 earnings and surprise history

In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company missed the consensus mark due to lower realized natural gas prices and higher year-over-year expenses. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69 cents. Total revenues of $6.8 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.3%, fueled by increased product sales. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 0.7%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Canadian Natural Resources Limited price and EPS surprise

Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote

Trend in CNQ’s estimate revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has not witnessed any movement in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 43.14% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies an 11.21% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to consider ahead of CNQ’s Q1 results

In early 2025, Canadian Natural agreed to swap Shell’s remaining 10% stake in the (Athabasca Oil Sands Project) AOSP for a 10% interest in the Scotford Upgrader and Quest Carbon Capture facilities, bringing its AOSP ownership to 100% and adding 31,000 bbl/d of bitumen production, supporting near-term growth and stronger cash generation.

The company’s oil sands mining and upgrading assets have already started achieving strong production and high utilization since January and February 2025. Over the two months, CNQ averaged about 634,000 bbl/d on a gross basis. February 2025 was the highest monthly gross production in its history at about 640,000 bbl/d as it focused on continuous improvement initiatives combined with the strong performance from the reliability enhancement project at Horizon and the de-bottlenecked project at Scotford.

CNQ’s revenues are likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported. Our model predicts first-quarter revenues to have increased to $6,395 million from the year-ago quarter’s level of $6,115million. This can be attributed to better-than-expected performance of the Exploration & Production and the Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segments.

On a bearish note, Canadian Natural Resources is set to face debt maturities each year out till 2027, exposing it to refinancing risk at a time of unpredictable commodity prices. Additionally, the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter of Canadian Natural may get affected due to the rising expenses in the North Sea, Offshore Africa, Oil Sands Mining and Refining segments. Our model predicts first-quarter North Sea expenses to rise to $254.2 million from the year-ago quarter’s level of $140 million. The Offshore Africa expenses are anticipated to have increased to $88.6 million from the year-ago level of $70 million. The Oil Sands Mining and the Refining expenses are expected to have increased to $2,186.5 million and $254.3 million from the year-ago level of $2,139 million and $241 million, respectively.

What does our model predict for CNQ?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show an earnings beat for CNQ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CNQ’s Zacks Rank: CNQ currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks with the favorable combination

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Calumet, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +15.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CLMT is scheduled to release earnings on May 9. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 73.41% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $969.83 million, Calumet’s shares have lost 30.7% in a year.

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank #3. PBA is slated to release earnings on May 8.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pembina’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 3.2% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $22.7 billion, Pembina’s shares have gained 8.9% in a year.

Talen Energy Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +13.58% and a Zacks Rank #3. TLN is scheduled to release earnings on May 8.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Talen Energy’s 2025 sales indicates 11.51% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $10.28 billion, TLN’s shares have surged 117% in a year.

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