Canada: Fiscal update seen modestly improving deficit – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect Canada’s Spring Economic Update to show a CAD 60 billion deficit over 2026–27, slightly better than the prior budget shortfall. They attribute the improvement to stronger nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boosting revenues and only modest new spending, while seeing limited changes to borrowing plans as T-bills and the Canada Strong Fund structure absorb funding needs.

Stronger revenues offset modest new spending

"The Federal Government is scheduled to present its Spring Economic Update (SEU) at 16:00ET on Tuesday, where we look for a $60bn deficit over 2026-27 for a modest improvement from the $65.4bn shortfall in Budget 2025."

"This improvement stems from a combination of stronger budget revenues following upward revisions to nominal GDP, along with modest new spending in the update itself."

"We do not expect material changes to 2026-27 borrowing projections, with T-bills able to absorb new spending measures."

"The new Canada Strong Fund will also require ~$8bn/yr in funding (through 28-29) with its $25bn endowment spread over three years."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)