Vietnam Dong: Stable despite widening trade deficit – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank analysts note that Vietnam’s July inflation eased to 4.5% year-on-year, keeping the average near the 4.5% target, while the trade deficit widened to USD 3.6 billion on strong import growth driven by energy and capital goods. Despite external headwinds and future CBAM-related risks for steel exports, USD/VND has stayed stable around 26,277, with VND slightly stronger year-to-date.

Inflation moderates as imports surge

"On trade, the July trade deficit widened to USD3.6bn (Bloomberg consensus: USD2.5bn) vs USD2.6bn in June, marking the eighth consecutive monthly deficit."

"Looking ahead, steel exports are expected to face headwinds from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and existing US anti-dumping measures on certain Vietnamese steel products."

"While the widening trade deficit bears watching, it largely reflects strong imports of capital goods, intermediate inputs and energy associated with expanding manufacturing capacity rather than weakening external competitiveness."

"FDI disbursements rose a further 11.8% yoy in the first seven months of 2026, suggesting investment momentum remains robust despite rising external headwinds."

"In FX, USD/VND rose 0.1% to 26,277 yesterday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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