|

British Pound rises as Burnham fiscal pledge calms markets

  • Burnham pledges to follow Reeves’ fiscal rules, easing nerves.
  • US Dollar weakness helps Cable recover from early session lows.
  • UK GDP, Warsh remarks, and US NFP drive the next catalysts.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances 0.40% on Monday after Andy Burnham, who is expected to become the new UK Prime Minister, commented that he will adhere to fiscal rules set by Chancellor Rachel Reeves at a speech in which he laid the path for the economy. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3244 after reaching daily lows of 1.3191.

GBP/USD gains as Burnham reassures investors on fiscal discipline

Cable is underpinned by broad US Dollar weakness, with the Greenback losing 0.20%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down at 101.15.

Burnham said that he wouldn’t name government appointments until the end of the election process. He added that he will stick to the Labour Party’s 2024 manifesto, committing to certain fiscal rules set by the Finance Minister Reeves.

On the news, GBP/USD improved from around 1.3200 flat towards the current exchange rate, with markets relieved, listening to Burnham’s latest speech before being named Britain’s new Prime Minister, the seventh in the last ten years.

Although buyers are gaining momentum, they’re not out of the woods, as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print for Q1 2026 looms. In the US, the docket was absent on Monday, yet traders will be focused on jobs data, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Thursday, with the markets closed on Friday for the celebration of US Independence Day.

Alongside this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be at the European Central Bank (ECB) Sintra Symposium, with traders focused on whether he offers any hints on monetary policy or stand pat.

Money markets had priced in 30 basis points of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening by the end of 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime Terminal

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Chart Analysis GBP/USD
GBP/USD daily chart

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3249, maintaining a bearish tone as spot holds below the clustered simple moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-day) grouped around 1.3424, while the long-standing downward resistance trend line, broken at 1.3529, stays well overhead. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 remains under the midline, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and reinforcing the notion that rallies are likely to be capped by the nearby moving average barrier.

On the topside, immediate resistance is provided by the triple simple moving average cluster near 1.3424, ahead of the former downward trend-line break at 1.3529, which marks a stronger hurdle for any recovery attempt. On the downside, the current area around 1.3249 acts as a short-term pivot, with more significant structural support only emerging toward the upward trend-line origin near 1.3159, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.36%-0.42%0.10%0.12%0.16%-0.14%-0.23%
EUR0.36%-0.06%0.48%0.47%0.56%0.24%0.13%
GBP0.42%0.06%0.54%0.54%0.59%0.27%0.19%
JPY-0.10%-0.48%-0.54%0.02%0.04%-0.27%-0.34%
CAD-0.12%-0.47%-0.54%-0.02%0.03%-0.28%-0.38%
AUD-0.16%-0.56%-0.59%-0.04%-0.03%-0.31%-0.38%
NZD0.14%-0.24%-0.27%0.27%0.28%0.31%-0.09%
CHF0.23%-0.13%-0.19%0.34%0.38%0.38%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD bounces off four-day lows, still below 1.3500

GBP/USD sticks to the bearish tone on Thursday, coming down to the 1.3480 region in the latter part of the NA session. In the meantime, Cable’s weakness comes as investors continue to assess mixed UK data, poor US results, and the persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

EUR/USD looks apathetic around 1.1530

EUR/USD reverses Wednesday’s downtick and trades with modest gains in the 1.1530 region following the end of the NA session on Thursday. The pair’s tepid advance comes on the back of the absence of clear direction in the US Dollar despite tensions from the Middle East appear far from alleviated. Later on Friday, investors are expected to monitor the the releases of another revision of GDP figures in the Euroland, US Retail Sales and the preliminary U-Mich gauge.

Gold loses the grip, recedes toward $4,350

Gold extends its intraday pullback on Thursday, retesting the $4,350 zone per troy ounce, or three-day troughs. Meanwhile, the yellow metal continues to monitor developments from the Middle East as well as bets surrounding the potential Fed’s rate path.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Fidelity plans to add staking to ETH ETF amid yield debate
Asset manager Fidelity has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to permit staking in its Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH), which holds over $898 million in net assets.
Week ahead – Summer lull could be tested by geopolitics and central bank expectations

US dollar stabilizes as September Fed hike bets remain subdued. Market volatility stays low, but thin liquidity could amplify movements. Key UK data could challenge pound strength; euro craves bullish catalysts.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?
Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.