British Pound hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 as US Dollar pulls back

GBP/USD appreciates for the second consecutive day and hits fresh three-week highs above 1.3400.
Fed minutes showing a split committee and hopes of a new round of US-Iran peace talks have dented the US Dollar's strength.
Investors' confidence in the next cabinet's fiscal discipline is keeping the British Pound buoyed.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, to hit fresh three–week highs right above 1.3400. The Greenback's pullback following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes and rumours about the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations are keeping the pair buoyed.

The US and Iran traded attacks for the second consecutive day on Thursday, but risk aversion remains contained so far, with markets hopeful that the negotiations will continue. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Thursday that Tehran “wants to make a deal so badly,” which suggests that the peace talks might resume soon.

Beyond that, the US Dollar remains on its back foot since the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting. The committee maintained its will to fight inflation, but showed a divergence on the monetary policy path that has left investors pondering the timing of the next interest rate hike.

In the UK, in the absence of key macroeconomic releases this week, the Pound maintains a positive tone amid the political impasse. Andrew Burnham, the best-positioned candidate to replace Keir Starmer at Downing Street, has pledged his commitment to follow the fiscal rules established by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, so far soothing concerns about a debt crisis.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

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