Brexit and US CPI amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

According to analysts at Danske Bank, today's key event will be the vote in the House of Commons on Theresa May's Brexit deal at 20:00 CET.

Key Quotes

“As of now, we still expect May to suffer another defeat despite the new Brexit deal but it depends on how well it is received, especially by the supporting DUP party. We still assign a 15% probability of the deal passing today. If it is voted down, the next step will be for the UK parliament to vote on whether it can support a no deal Brexit tomorrow.”

“In the UK, we also get monthly GDP for January today. PMIs indicate growth remains subdued around 0.0-0.1% q/q in Q1.”

“On the other side of the Atlantic, the day brings February US CPI core numbers , which we expect rose 0.2% m/m, implying a core inflation rate unchanged at 2.2% y/y. Moreover, we will also keep an eye on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index given the recession fears in financial markets.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Week ahead: US CPI, France’s budget crisis and Q3 earnings to set the market tone

The US dollar held relatively strong this week, despite the disappointing US jobs report on October 2, which further decreased the probability of a back-to-back rate hike by the Fed at the upcoming gathering on October 28.

CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts expand amid diverging signals

The week in one sentence: Euro and Australian Dollar shorts deepened in the week to October 6, while Yen longs rebuilt. In addition, Coffee buying continued, and Gold exposure remained elevated despite another price decline. Speculators turned more negative on the Euro, increasing the net exposure to around 99.3K contracts.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?