Brazil: A hangover from the Black Friday - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank note that Brazil’s headline retail sales (i.e. “varejo ampliado”) fell 1.7% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in December, disappointing the consensus (-0.7%; 4.0%) and Rabobank’s own estimate (+1.6%; 7.4%).

Key Quotes

“The result seems to have been influenced by a payback to strong Black Friday sales in November – an effect that our models (clearly) failed to capture.”

“Despite the influence from recent shocks (e.g. truckers’ strike in May; one-off transfers in Q3), the trends point to continued expansion in goods consumption. In Q4, the broad retail sales index rose at a sequential annualized speed of 1.3% (Q3: 7.6%); in 18H2, broad sales moved at a sequential annualized pace of 4.5% (18H1: 4.2%).”

“The much lower than expected retail sales performance prompted us to revise down our projections for December IBC-Br index (out on Friday). We now look for a stable year-on-year print (previous: +0.9%), and a sequential decline of 0.1% m/m (previous: +0.3%).”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

EUR/USD slides on USD strength, weak German data

EUR/USD is trading below 1.1350. The German IFO Business Climate slightly missed expectations with 98.5 points. The USD is gaining ground despite progress in US-Chinese talks.


GBP/USD recaptures 1.3000 amid Brexit uncertainty, dollar swings

GBP/USD is trading above 1.3000 once again, as the USD loses ground now. Reports about a potential extension of Brexit are circulating but no progress has been made. Trump meets China's Vice PM Liu later.