Bitcoin Market Update: only 69% of BTC holders are making money

Bitcoin (BTC) is locked in a tight range, however, the bias is negative.
The vital support is created by Weekly SMA50 on approach to $8,850.

Tanya Abrosimova Independent Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) has barely moved since the start of the day. The first digital asset is locked in a tight range limited by $9,200 on the upside and $9,000 on the downside with no clear understanding where from here. Bitcoin's market capitalization is registered at $168.45, while its market share is registered at 62.3%.

Bitcoin's on-chain data

According to Intotheblock data, only 69% are making money at the current BTC price, which is the lowest level in the recent seven days. The statistic is hardly surprising as BTC/USD has lost about 1.5% of its value on a week-on-week basis.

Notably, the number of large transactions increased to 12,480 during the past week even despite the price decrease. A transaction that exceeds $100,000 is considered large. The same is true about the total volume of the large transactions, that have been growing recently.

BTC/USD: Technical picture

Bitcoin has been drifting towards the lower boundary of the current consolidation range since the start of the week. The channel support is created by psychological $9,000 with the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band located on the approach to this barrier. Once it is out of the way, the upside is likely to gain traction with the next focus on vital support $8,850 created by a combination of daily SMA100 and weekly SMA50. This area has been limiting the decline since the beginning of May, and most likely it won't be taken out from the first try even if the bearish momentum gains traction.

BTC/USD daily chart

On the upside, the initial resistance is created by $9,200 with 1-hour SMA100 and SMA200 located around this barrier. Once it is out of the way, the upside is likely to gain traction with the next focus on an even stronger barrier that comes at $9,400. This is the upper boundary of the recent consolidation channel reinforced by daily SMA50 and the upper line of the daily Bollinger Band.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Author

Tanya Abrosimova

Independent Analyst

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold: Bears struggle to breach below $4,150

Gold now gives away its initial gains and resumes its decline, revisiting the $4,160 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with a mixed performance of US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

Bitcoin rebounds despite cautious sentiment

Bitcoin rebounds over 2%, trading above $83,500 on Tuesday, recovering the previous day’s losses. Persistent geopolitical tensions and mixed signals continue to weigh on risk appetite, keeping investors cautious despite BTC’s recovery.

US – Midterm update: Democratic lead holds three weeks before election

With three weeks until the US midterm election on 3 November, prediction markets are more or less unchanged. Polymarket continues to put the probability of a Democratic sweep at 60-65%. The House is seen as a fairly safe Democratic win, with a probability of around 90%.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?