Australian Dollar rises as Greenback softens on shutdown, dovish Fed outlook

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6600 as fading US Dollar strength helps offset earlier volatility.
Greenback weakens amid prolonged shutdown and firm Fed rate-cut bets.
Focus shifts to Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Fed Minutes on Wednesday, with speeches by Fed officials in the spotlight.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, extending its recovery as the Greenback’s early strength fades. The pair rebounds toward the upper end of its recent consolidation band after swinging sharply in both directions earlier in the day.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is hovering near 0.6617, close to the upper boundary of the 0.6580-0.6620 range that has contained price action since last week. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, retreats after briefly rallying to a near two-week high earlier in the day, buoyed by weakness in the Euro (EUR) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid political jitters in Europe and Japan.

Earlier in the day, data from the TD-MI Inflation Gauge showed headline prices rising 0.4% MoM in September, reversing August’s 0.3% decline, while the annual rate accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%. The hotter-than-expected print lent support to the Aussie, as it suggested that underlying price pressure remains sticky and could keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautious about delivering further rate cuts in the near term.

The broader outlook for the US Dollar remains tilted to the downside as the US government shutdown stretches into its sixth day, raising concerns over potential drag on near-term growth if the impasse persists. At the same time, markets are fully pricing in a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its meeting later this month, while bets for another reduction in December have also strengthened.

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence data for October, due on Tuesday, for fresh signals on household sentiment and domestic demand. On the US side, the key highlight will be the release of the Federal Reserve’s September Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. With the US government shutdown delaying several key economic data releases, investors will also pay close attention to remarks from several Fed officials scheduled to speak throughout the week.

Economic Indicator

Westpac Consumer Confidence

The Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute captures the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their family finances over the past and coming year, expectations about the one-year and five-year economic conditions and views about current buying conditions for major household items. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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