AUD/USD Price Forecast: Reverses from neckline of H&S formation near 0.6900

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6980 as the Australian Dollar outperforms.
Market participants doubt that the RBA will hike interest rates again in November.
The US Dollar weakened last week due to correction in US AI-related stocks.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its currency peers at the start of the week, trading almost 0.5% higher at around 0.6980 against the US Dollar (USD) in the European trade. The antipodean gains even as market participants doubt whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver one more interest rate hike this year.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.22%	0.04%	-0.02%	-0.31%	-0.42%	-0.09%	0.05%
EUR	-0.22%		-0.18%	-0.21%	-0.51%	-0.65%	-0.31%	-0.17%
GBP	-0.04%	0.18%		-0.06%	-0.36%	-0.49%	-0.13%	0.00%
JPY	0.02%	0.21%	0.06%		-0.28%	-0.49%	-0.06%	0.09%
CAD	0.31%	0.51%	0.36%	0.28%		-0.10%	0.22%	0.36%
AUD	0.42%	0.65%	0.49%	0.49%	0.10%		0.35%	0.48%
NZD	0.09%	0.31%	0.13%	0.06%	-0.22%	-0.35%		0.14%
CHF	-0.05%	0.17%	-0.00%	-0.09%	-0.36%	-0.48%	-0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

So far in 2026, the RBA has delivered four interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps), pushing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.6%.

What weighs concerns on hawkish RBA bets

Analysts at Rabobank highlight a weaker tone in Australia’s latest labour figures, noting that “the unemployment rate printing at 4.6% and a contraction of almost 40 thousand jobs” has effectively “erasing the job gains seen in July.”

According to the RBA Rate Tracker, there is an almost 82% chance that the RBA will leave its OCR unchanged in the next policy meeting in November.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades almost flat at the start of the week. The US Dollar faces significant selling pressure last week amid a significant correction in the United States (US) Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6976, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains capped beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6993. The formation of the Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern also supports the bearish bias whose neckline near 0.6900 is acting as key support for the pair.

The pair has been unable to reclaim the short-term EMA metric since its recent slide, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that downside pressure still outweighs buying interest despite the latest attempts to stabilize.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 0.6993, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery phase. On the downside, the neckline of the H&S formation near 0.6900 is the key support zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

Employment Change s.a.

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish.

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What to expect in the week ahead

Investors are still digesting last week’s price action as we start a new week. US stocks sold off sharply, with the Swiss and UK indices attracting inflows as tech sold off. Sovereign bonds, particularly Treasuries, rallied and acted as a safe haven as the AI trade suffered another bout of volatility.

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