AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates near 0.7000 as bulls await 38.2% Fibo. breakout
- AUD/USD opens with a modest bullish gap on Monday, though it lacks follow-through.
- US-Iran diplomacy hopes undermine the USD and lend some support to spot prices.
- The 38.2% Fibo. continues to cap the pair as traders await the FOMC meeting this week.
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap opening on Monday and oscillates in a narrow band around the 0.7000 psychological mark through the Asian session.
The US Dollar (USD) weakens in reaction to renewed optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, a slump in crude oil prices eases inflation fears and tempers US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which is seen as another factor undermining the Greenback.
Adding to this, expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lend additional support to the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC monetary policy meeting this week.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair keeps a constructive near-term bias above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the May-June downfall. This comes on top of the recent goodish rebound from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and backs the case for a further near-term appreciation.
Momentum readings also back this mildly bullish stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram. This hints that upside pressure is slowly building rather than exhausted.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.7019 before placing fresh bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair and a subsequent move to the 50% retracement at 0.7066. A sustained break above these levels would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibo. at 0.7113 and then 0.7180, with the swing high at 0.7265 acting as a more distant cap.
On the downside, first support emerges at the 23.6% retracement at 0.6961, ahead of the 200-day SMA around 0.6901, while a deeper slide would expose the Fibonacci anchor zone near 0.6867.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.20% | -0.37% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.01% | 0.12% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.16% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.15% | -0.07% | 0.06% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.23% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.28% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.21% | 0.11% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.11% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
