AUD/USD: Downward momentum fades – UOB Group

AUD could rise, but any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; AUD is expected to trade in a range between 0.6080 and 0.6310, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that ‘the sharp plunge today appears to be overdone.’ We pointed out that ‘there is a chance for AUD to drop further, but given the deeply oversold conditions, a sustained decline below 0.6080 appears unlikely today.’ AUD fell less than expected to 0.6089 before staging a sharp rally, reaching a high of 0.6237 in the late NY session. Today, AUD could rise, but any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range. In other words, we do not expect AUD to break clearly above 0.6265.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “While we indicated yesterday (03 Feb, spot at 0.6140) that AUD ‘is under pressure’, we also indicated that ‘it is too early to determine if there is enough momentum for AUD to drop towards the significant support level at 0.6000.’ AUD subsequently dropped to 0.6089 before reversing sharply, breaking above our ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.6230 (high has been 0.6237). Downward momentum has largely faded. For now, we expect AUD to trade in a range, probably between 0.6080 and 0.6310.”