AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Loses traction below 95.50, the key contention is seen at 94.90

The AUD/JPY cross edges lower to 95.35 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The cross faces some follow-through selling after Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda came out with verbal intervention remarks early Wednesday.

Kanda stated that the Japanese authorities will deal appropriately with FX moves and will closely watch them with a high sense of urgency. This, in turn, might drag the AUD/JPY lower and act as a headwind for the cross. Market players await the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision on Friday for a clear direction for the pair.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained benchmark lending rates steady on Wednesday, as expected by the market. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), was kept at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. Meanwhile, any signs from the Chinese authorities about the additional stimulus plans to deal with the property crisis might lift the China-proxy Australian dollar (AUD) and limit the downside of the AUD/JPY.

According to the four-hour chart, the path of least resistance for the AUD/JPY is to the upside as the cross holds above the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 50 in the bullish territory, which supports the buyers for now.

Looking at the upside, the immediate resistance level for AUD/JPY emerges near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 95.60. A break above the latter will see a rally to 95.78 (a high of July 21) en route to a high of July 4 at 96.85. The next barrier to watch is a Year-To-Date (YTD) high of 97.62. and finally at 98.00 (a psychological round mark).

On the downside, the cross will meet the key support level near the confluence of the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA at 94.90. A breach of the latter will see a drop to 94.60 (the 100-hour EMA), followed by a psychological round figure at 94.00.

AUD/JPY four-hour chart