USD/CHF Price Forecast: Struggles below 0.8100 as bears eye 50-SMA pivotal support
- USD/CHF trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bearish conviction.
- The disappointing US NFP tempered Fed-hike bets, undermining the USD and weighing on the pair.
- The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and backs the case for a further decline.
The USD/CHF pair struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains on the back foot below the 0.8100 mark through the first half of the European session on Monday.
Friday's disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) further tempered bets of an immediate interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, is seen undermining the US Dollar (USD) and capping the USD/CHF pair. Investors, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from energy supply disruptions.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the safe-haven USD and contribute to limiting losses for the USD/CHF pair. The market focus now shifts to the release of the US inflation figures, due this week. The crucial data will be looked for fresh cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD demand.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair is holding below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July rally, albeit bears await a break below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, suggesting upside momentum is tentative.
Hence, a break below the 50-day SMA will be seen as a key trigger for USD/CHF bears and pave the way for a decline to a dense Fibo. support band between the 38.2% retracement at 0.8037 and the 61.8% level at 0.7932 ahead of structural floors at 0.7857 and 0.7761. On the topside, initial resistance comes at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 0.8103, and a break above this barrier would expose the next upside objective at the cycle high zone around 0.8208.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CHF daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.48% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.53% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.58% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.48% | -0.53% | -0.58% | -0.54% | -0.57% | -0.56% | -0.49% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.54% | -0.09% | 0.03% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.57% | 0.09% | 0.03% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.56% | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.49% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
