XRP at a crossroads: Hold at $2.76 will define the next leg in the five-month channel

XRP/USD has retraced to the 50% level and annual VAH at $2.76 within its 5-month bullish channel—secure that pivot to target $2.92, $3.27, and $3.63, but a break risks a deeper slide toward $2.21 and the channel floor at $1.85.

Over the past five months, XRP has traded inside a rising parallel channel, rhythmically advancing from lows near $1.85 to highs around $3.63. In August, price pulled back roughly 50% of that move, finding confluence at the $2.76 level—also the annual value area high (VAH) on the volume profile.

• Volume profile insight:
  • The VAH at $2.76 aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a key battleground between buyers and sellers.
  • Above current levels, there’s light volume from $2.92 to $3.27, suggesting swift moves if that zone is reclaimed.
• Channel context & momentum:
  • Price sits at the mid-section (median line) of the bullish channel. A successful bounce here typically leads to a run toward the channel’s upper boundary.
  • TTM Squeeze momentum bars have compressed, indicating a coiling phase—watch for expansion to signal direction.
  • The daily stochastic has turned up from oversold territory, hinting at a potential relief rally.

Crucial levels to watch

1. Key pivot – $2.76
   • Hold & bounce: Validates mid-channel support, opens door for $2.92 (channel median), then $3.27 and $3.63.
   • Break below: Confirms deeper correction, targets initial support at $2.56.
2. First support – $2.56
   • Previous congestion zone and lower volume node; a typical stopping point in a moderate retracement.
3. Secondary support band – $2.21–$2.12
   • Near the channel’s lower parallel, a normal pullback could bottom here before bulls re-enter.
4. Channel floor – $1.85
   • Breach shifts medium-term bias bearish, risking a fall toward the 2025 range low at $1.50.

What lies ahead

• Bullish scenario:
  • A decisive daily close above $2.76, coupled with rising volume, would confirm support—and likely trigger a fast move through $2.92 toward $3.27 and the channel top at $3.63.
• Bearish scenario:
  • Failure to defend $2.76 could see stops cascade into $2.56, with the real test at $2.21–$2.12. A break below $1.85 would flip the outlook negative and invite lower lows.

Traders should monitor volume spikes at the major levels and watch for momentum shifts to gauge breakout or breakdown risk.