The next bull run may not necessarily see old top altcoins marking new ATHs, except maybe Solana

The crypto market is expecting a bull run in the coming few months as Bitcoin halving inches closer. One of the biggest cohorts of investors expecting to make a profit are the ones that have held on to their tokens since the last bull run, as well as those that bought around the all-time highs. This was back in November 2021, and if we look at the past, it seems like there is a good chance some of the tokens that peaked in 2021 may not do so in the next bull run.

Historical change in altcoins peaks

According to trader and analyst Lady of Crypto (LoC), the next bull run may not witness some of the older top projects reaching new highs. This inference was drawn from the fact that a similar outcome was observed in 2021. 

Back then, most of the top projects from the bull run prior to 2021, i.e., the 2017 bull run, did not make it back to their ATHs. Out of the top 30, only five of them managed to breach their all-time high mark, but even then, the rally was not as significant in terms of gains. As such, 84% of 2017's biggest projects failed to even breach the previous ATHs, as visible in the table below.

2021 bull run top performers

The reason behind this is that new projects that emerged in 2021 took their place as they offered more owing to technological development as well as increased adoption. Reiterating the same LoC noted,

"There's a lot of hopium about 2021 project reclaiming their ATH, but honestly, it seems rare. Crypto is an industry that values new projects over old ones. So much so that old ones can't even reclaim their former highs."

In that case, there might not be much chance for the top altcoins from the November 2021 bull run to hit new highs this time around. Looking back, among the top-performing assets were the likes of Solana, Polkadot, Terra, etc. Today, Terra does not even exist as the company went bankrupt in 2022, and Polkadot has been kicked out of the top 10 assets. As a matter of fact, looking at the year-to-date performance of cryptocurrencies in 2023, except for Solana and Chainlink, no other altcoin from the top 20 list has made it into the ten biggest gainers.

Year to date ten biggest gainers

With the increasing crypto adoptions, rapidly developing Layer 2 blockchains and the emergence of meme coins and other exceptionally performing Layer 1 projects, there is a chance that they might replace the older coins.

Solana price has a shot

Solana price, as noted above, has managed to make good growth this year as the altcoin gained by 335%, up from $9.96 to $43.16 at the time of writing. Of this increase, 105.5% came in the last month alone, which pushed the price of the altcoin to a 15-month high.

Furthermore, SOL is now close to breaching the one-and-a-half-year-old barrier marked at $46.42. Successful flipping this into a support floor will be crucial for the altcoin to continue its rally in the coming months and help it breach the $50 mark.

SOL/USD 3-day chart

But if this breach fails, there is a good chance Solana price could decline and unless the broader market bullish cues prevent a steep fall, SOL could head back down to $40.00 or $36.92. Losing the latter would invalidate the bullish thesis and leave the altcoin vulnerable to falling to $31.61.