Excitement about the potential approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded-funds (ETF) has fueled a strong rally in digital assets over the past month, but the move higher seems overdone, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report last week.

Bullish sentiment has been buoyed by two main arguments, the bank said.

“A spot bitcoin ETF approval would help crypto markets to attract fresh/new capital as the newly-approved ETFs see inflows,” and the “approval would cement a win for the crypto industry and a setback for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) thus making it more likely that going forward the SEC approach towards the crypto industry will soften,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

The bank says it is skeptical of both arguments. Instead of new capital entering the crypto sector, it is more likely that existing capital will move from current bitcoin products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), bitcoin futures ETFs and listed mining companies, into the newly approved spot ETFS.

JPMorgan notes that such ETFs already exist in Canada and Europe and have gained “little interest from investors since their inception.”

While the Ripple and Grayscale court rulings represent legal defeats for the SEC, “it is far from clear that the regulatory tightening of the crypto industry will lessen significantly going forward given how unregulated this industry is,” the report said.

“U.S. crypto industry regulations are still pending and we do not believe U.S. lawmakers would shift their stance because of the above two legal cases especially with the memories from the FTX fraud still fresh,” the analysts wrote.

The bitcoin halving, likely in April or May next year, is also cited as another bullish tailwind for crypto markets, the bank said, but this argument is “unconvincing” as the effect of the halving is unpredictable and is already priced in.

CoinDesk’s parent company, Digital Currency Group, also owns Grayscale.


All writers’ opinions are their own and do not constitute financial advice in any way whatsoever. Nothing published by CoinDesk constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or Content published by CoinDesk be relied upon for any investment activities. CoinDesk strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC consolidates while ETH and XRP show some strength

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC consolidates while ETH and XRP show some strength

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated between $94,000 and $100,000 in the last nine days. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) prices stood relatively stronger and have gained nearly 3% and 7%, respectively, this week.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Trump's US reciprocal tariffs pause fails to improve Bitcoin and crypto market outlook

Trump's US reciprocal tariffs pause fails to improve Bitcoin and crypto market outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) and top cryptos halted their declines following a pause in President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff plans, which were originally scheduled to go live on Thursday.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Ripple vs SEC battle nears end as the regulator acknowledges Grayscale XRP ETF filing

Ripple vs SEC battle nears end as the regulator acknowledges Grayscale XRP ETF filing

Ripple's XRP is up 4% in the early hours of Friday following the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledgment of Grayscale's 19b-4 filing to convert its XRP Trust to an ETF.

More Ripple News
200,000 New Investors Buy Ripple (XRP) 30-Days After Gensler’s Farewell: What Next for Stellar (XLM)?

200,000 New Investors Buy Ripple (XRP) 30-Days After Gensler’s Farewell: What Next for Stellar (XLM)?

Ripple (XRP) price consolidated around $2.40 on Thursday, up 11% since Monday, technical indicators suggest Stellar (XLM) has joined the rally.

More Ripple News
Bitcoin: BTC consolidates before a big move

Bitcoin: BTC consolidates before a big move

Bitcoin's (BTC) price has been consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000 for the last ten days, and, when writing on Friday, it hovers around $97,000. Despite this consolidation, US Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) data recorded a total net outflow of $650.80 million until Thursday, hinting signs of weakness among institutional investors.

Read full analysis
The Best Brokers of the Year

The Best Brokers of the Year

SPONSORED Explore top-quality choices worldwide and locally. Compare key features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the right broker for your needs, whether trading CFDs, Forex pairs like EUR/USD, or commodities like Gold.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP