The crypto market has fallen back to last year's low

Market overview

The crypto market has lost nearly 13% of its capitalisation over the past seven days, falling to $2.59 trillion at the time of writing. With the market bottoming out at $2.52T, it is only $0.1T above last April's low. The sharp decline following consolidation signals the start of an extended downtrend. However, we also note that the current levels are in the strongest resistance zone for 2021–2024, which became support in 2025. Therefore, it is worth preparing for another and possibly quite protracted tug-of-war in the $2.3–2.7T range.

Bitcoin is trading near $78K, rebounding after this morning's dip below $75K. The first cryptocurrency began its recovery in April from the same area, which probably served as a trigger for bold buyers. We consider it an important bearish signal that BTC began to sell off actively after an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the 50-day average. The main scenario for the markets now may be a fall towards $50K in the next month and a half to two months.

Bitcoin fell 11% in January to $78K; the decline has been ongoing since October. The last time BTC fell for four consecutive months was exactly seven years ago — from October 2018 to January 2019. After that, the first cryptocurrency showed impressive growth over five months. In terms of seasonality, February is considered the best month of the year for BTC. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has ended this month with growth in 11 cases and only declined in four. The average growth was 27.6%, and the average decline was 19.5%.

News background

Investors withdrew $1.60 billion (-2.8%) from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January. The outflow from funds has continued for a record three months in a row, amounting to almost $6.2B during this period. Investors withdrew $0.36 billion from spot Ethereum ETFs in the US in January; over the last three months, the outflow amounted to $2.4 billion. In January, investors invested $0.10 billion in SOL ETFs.

Bitcoin's hash rate has fallen 12% over the past four months, according to Glassnode. This is the most significant correction since 2021, when Chinese authorities banned cryptocurrency mining.

According to The Block, mining company Bit Digital intends to completely abandon Bitcoin mining to focus on investments in Ethereum and strategies related to artificial intelligence.
In January, the average cost of mining one bitcoin reached $74,300, according to Capriole Investments. Large market players have a margin of safety, but the capitulation of some companies could lead to increased sales of mined coins to cover costs.

According to a report by auditing firm BDO, Tether's profit for 2025 exceeded $10 billion. The USDT issuer's excess reserves reached $6.3 billion. During the reporting period, Tether issued nearly 50 billion USDT, with the total issuance of the largest stablecoin exceeding 186 billion tokens.