ETH/BTC breakout signals growing altcoin strength, but Bitcoin recovery remains key

The crypto market continues to hold up well compared to other asset classes. Oil jumped to its highest level in over a month, while bonds sold off on Monday as the US-Iran strikes escalated, reviving inflation concerns. Meanwhile, stocks steadied after last week's tech-led decline. Risk-off sentiment remains in play for now, but crude oil could be approaching at least temporary resistance, while stocks may be nearing key support levels. There is still time and room for these trends to develop, so meaningful reversals may not happen immediately, especially if bonds continue to move lower, which could support further strength in the US dollar and keep cryptocurrencies trading sideways for a while longer. For now, however, the Crypto TOTAL market cap chart continues to look constructive and appears to be consolidating within a broader uptrend alongside Bitcoin. We are tracking a bullish running triangle within wave (4), which could be followed by another rally into wave (5) of A/1. Alternatively, the current price action may be forming a higher-degree wave B/2 correction, but in both scenarios the market could still be targeting the 2.3T area.

The ETH/BTC pair is breaking back above the channel resistance line, confirming that support is in place, at least for now, so we can expect a minimum three-wave A/1-B/2-C/3 rally.

Looking at market dominance, Bitcoin has recently regained some relative strength, as reflected in the continued recovery of the BTC.D/OTHERS.D ratio. This explains why many altcoins have struggled to keep pace in the short term. However, from an Elliott Wave perspective, the ratio still appears to be in a corrective phase rather than the start of a new impulsive uptrend. The current structure suggests that the BTC.D/OTHERS.D ratio is approaching the completion of wave 4, with the final leg of subwave (v) within wave c potentially nearing its end. If this view is confirmed and the ratio starts a new wave 5 decline, it would point to renewed outperformance from altcoins relative to Bitcoin.

At the same time, the Crypto TOTAL Market Cap continues to consolidate within a broader bullish structure. Once this correction is complete and the market resumes its next impulsive advance, stronger altcoins could attract fresh buying interest and outperform once again. Until then, capital is likely to remain selective, favoring higher-quality projects while weaker tokens continue to lag and trade sideways. Before we can start talking about a true altseason, we first need to see a more significant recovery in Bitcoin.