Bitcoin climbs as Oil tops $100, equities drop after Iran strikes

Bitcoin rose as much as 1.6% since midnight UTC to $79,742 as U.S. Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday night and Tehran responded with missile strikes on American bases in Jordan.

Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The largest cryptocurrency was recently trading near $79,000. Ether is 0.3% higher at $2,490 and XRP has added 0.4% to $1.42

The rally is happening against a risk-off backdrop in other markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5% at the European open following a 1.2% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday. Nasdaq 100 index futures are little changed since midnight.

Crypto is moving with the metals instead. Gold is up 1.06% at $4,401 and silver has added 1.33%. That is close to the inverse of Sept. 2, when U.S. strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) targets sent bitcoin lower alongside equities.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a $46.65 million net outflow on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue, following $174.6 million of inflows on Friday.

Derivatives positioning

Taker ratio turns neutral: The taker buy-sell volume ratio has flipped to neutral after two consecutive days of bearish readings, coinciding with bitcoin's bounce back above $79,000 early today. Takers are traders who fill orders using market orders, in contrast to makers, who place passive limit orders.

Short buildup unwinds: BTC's retreat from $80,000 yesterday was matched by a pickup in open interest (OI) across major USD- and USDT-denominated futures, pointing to a buildup of short positions. Some 24 hours later, that same OI has declined alongside the spot-price bounce, according to data source Velo. The shorts taken yesterday may have been closed, though the decline also suggests no fresh bullish capital has entered the market.

Positioning stays light: The overall bitcoin open interest tally remains well under 700K, pointing to still-light positioning. The same holds for the ether market.

HYPE's rally looks spot-driven: HYPE hit a record high of $88 over the weekend and has since steadied just below that level, after prices surged 60% in August. Yet the OI tally has barely changed, standing at 1.02 million HYPE, well below the January peak of around 59 million HYPE. That divergence suggests the spot-price rise has been driven mainly by spot-market flows rather than leveraged futures activity.

ZEC longs build: Zcash's futures OI ticked higher, snapping a two-day decline as the token's price hit a record high of $1,260. OI has risen steadily alongside price since Aug. 1, a combination pointing to a buildup of long positions. ZEC's 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is the most positive among major cryptocurrencies, a sign buyers have been more aggressive, trading via market orders rather than passive limit orders.

UNI diverges lower: On the opposite end of the CVD spectrum is UNI, whose price is under pressure for a third straight day, trading near $6.65, down 1.4% since midnight UTC. The negative CVD alongside near-record futures OI points to potential volatility ahead.

Bitcoin vol gauge ticks higher: Traders may want to watch bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, which is now hovering above its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. That could mark the start of another volatility spike, typically a feature of bear markets, though August's price rise also occurred against a backdrop of rising BVIV. Ether's equivalent gauge, EVIV, is also looking to break above its 100-day SMA.

Options traders eye CPI: In options listed on Deribit, bitcoin's front-end volatility remains relatively flat, a sign traders aren't yet pricing in big moves ahead of Friday’s CPI release. Front-end risk reversals have repriced meaningfully in favor of calls, or bullish bets, according to Laser Digital.

Calls dominate volume leaders: The top five most-traded instruments by 24-hour volume are all calls, at strike prices ranging from $80,000 to $90,000. The same holds true for ether.

Token talk

• Topping the CoinDesk 100 is Solana-based DePIN token Grass, up 12% since midnight UTC at $0.37 and 11% over 24 hours.
• Venice Token added 6.5% on the day to $27.59 and is 55% higher over 24 hours after setting a record high, with the AI platform completing the largest discretionary token burn in its history and announcing a NEAR integration.
• Perpetuals exchange token Lighter (LIT) climbed 9% to $5.27, extending an 11% gain over 24 hours on the back of consecutive days where volume topped $125 million — up from last Wednesday’s daily total of $92 million.
• The privacy trade is back with zcash (ZEC) rising by 5.1% to $1,238.61 while Dash is up by 4.7% to $65.42. Monero (XMR) is the exception, down 0.12% on the day and 4.6% over 24 hours.
• Raydium reversed hard, adding 5.8% to $1.31 and 19% over 24 hours after falling 6.7% on Tuesday, the sharpest turnaround in the CoinDesk 100.
• Ethena (ENA) gained 5.3% and NEAR Protocol 4.9% to $2.43, the latter alongside the Venice integration news.
• Polkadot is the day's biggest decliner, losing 5.8% to $1.17. It remains 10% higher over 24 hours, placing the entire decline after midnight UTC.