Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC and XAU kick-start recovery ahead of key economic events

Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $79,000, maintaining resilience on Wednesday as the broader cryptocurrency market consolidates gains. Gold (XAU) is steady above $4,400, underpinned by a measured shift toward risk-on sentiment among investors.

Investors weigh US economic data

Market participants are pricing a 62% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range on September 16, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. However, immediate focus has shifted to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which will release the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Friday.

The CPI is a scorecard for measuring inflation by tracking changes in the prices of goods and services on a monthly and annual basis. Investors closely monitor CPI reports for insights that directly shape the central bank’s policy direction; hence, Friday's release could shape the short- to medium-term outlook for Bitcoin and Gold.

With US inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, a stricter monetary stance could align with the regulator’s mission to ease price pressures amid broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and against the backdrop of previous US tariffs on the global economy.

A hotter-than-expected CPI would suggest persistent inflation, raising the probability that the Fed will hike interest rates or hold them higher for much longer. On the other hand, softer-than-expected CPI indicates easing price pressures, paving the way for interest rate cuts or monetary easing.

“Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole turn pushed the odds of a September hike to roughly two-thirds, and a hike into the 16 September meeting would test this rally directly,”  Yusuf Fakhro, Partner at ARP Digital, told FXStreet in a comment.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin broadly consolidates

Bitcoin trades at $79,968, extending its advance well above the short and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA near $72,572, the 200-day EMA around $72,824 and the 100-day EMA at $70,592 all sit comfortably below spot, suggesting a firmly supportive underlying trend despite the latest loss of upside momentum signaled by a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above 60 hints that buyers still retain control, but with a more measured tone than during the prior overbought phase.

The immediate technical cushion is defined by a dense support cluster between the 50-day EMA at $72,572 and the 200-day EMA at $72,824, with the 100-day EMA at $70,592 reinforcing the broader bullish structure on deeper pullbacks. As long as BTC holds above these moving average floors, the near-term bias remains constructive, and any corrective dips would likely be viewed as a pause within the prevailing uptrend rather than a trend reversal.

Gold analysis: XAU retains bullish outlook

Gold trades at $4,422, retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered between roughly $4,352 and $4,321. This positioning suggests underlying demand despite a soft momentum tone, with the MACD in negative territory while the RSI hovers near a neutral 52 level, hinting at a consolidative phase rather than outright exhaustion.

Initial resistance is seen at the downward-sloping trend-line break zone around $4,518, where recent rallies have been checked. On the downside, immediate support comes from the 100-day EMA at $4,369, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,352 and the 200-day EMA at $4,321. A daily close below this EMA cluster would weaken the current bullish bias and expose a deeper corrective slide.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)