ETH crash to $1K looms if key support breaks: Will futures traders step in?

The Ether (ETH) futures market saw its open interest (OI) on Gate.io fall by 45% to levels last seen in April 2025. At the same time, nearly 480,000 ETH left Binance, OKX, Gemini and Bitfinex over the past few days, reducing the exchange-held supply. 

The combined shift highlights a market with less leverage and declining exchange balances, placing greater focus on the $1,500 support zone, which some analysts view as critical to preventing a deeper move toward $1,000. 

Ether open interest falls across exchanges

Ether's futures market has undergone a broad reset during the recent sell-off. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that total ETH open interest across exchanges has dropped 25%, to $12.6 billion from $16.6 billion in May, with several major trading platforms now at levels last seen in April 2025.

Ether open interest. Source: CryptoQuant

Gate.io recorded the largest decline. ETH open interest fell to $2.68 billion on June 9 from $4.84 billion on May 7, a drop of about 45%. The figure is now nearly identical to the $2.67 billion level recorded on April 11, 2025.

Bybit has followed a similar path. ETH OI currently stands near $805 million, close to the $795 million recorded in early April 2025. The move points to a significant reduction in leveraged positions that accumulated during the latter stages of 2025 and early 2026.

ETH open interest on multiple exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

However, Binance presents a different picture. ETH open interest remains near $2.76 billion, holding within its recent range. The funding rates have also turned negative on the exchange, with the latest reading near -0.0047, showing short traders are paying a premium to maintain their positions.

ETH funding rate on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The divergence is notable. Gate.io and Bybit have already seen a major leverage reset. Futures traders on Binance remain active, but the negative funding points to a cautious sentiment. 

ETH supply drop meets key support at $1,500

Ether exchange reserves also posted a notable decline in early June. Across Binance, OKX, Gemini and Bitfinex, tracked ETH balances fell by 480,000 ETH over the past few days.

ETH multi-exchange reserve. Source: CryptoQuant

Binance reserves dropped to 3.65 million ETH on June 9 from 3.87 million ETH on June 4. Bitfinex holdings declined to 2.50 million ETH from 2.67 million ETH at the end of May. OKX recorded the sharpest percentage decline, with reserves falling from 424,000 ETH to about 336,000 ETH. Gemini balances also slipped to roughly 522,000 ETH.

Continued ETH outflows could reduce the amount of readily available supply on exchanges if buying demand starts to recover. 

Onchain data shows many ETH holders are still far from large profits. According to market commentator Gonza Goth, only 11% of Ethereum's supply is currently sitting at a 3x or greater gain, the lowest level since February 2017. However, Goth said, 

“Historically, extreme pessimism has created the best opportunities.”

ETH: relative supply by profit and loss. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, traders are also watching the $1,500 level next. Investor Ash Crypto noted that Ether failed to hold every support level during the 2022 bear market, when the price eventually bottomed near $880. 

The analyst said a weekly close above $1,500 would keep ETH above a historically important support zone, while a break below it would shift attention toward the next major support area near $1,000.

ETH/USD, one-week chart analysis by Ash. Source: X