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Blockchain indicator suggests Bitcoin could be close to bottoming out

A historically reliable blockchain indicator suggests bitcoin may be in the final stages of a bearish trend, having lost nearly 40% of its value in the past two months.

  • The entity-adjusted dormancy flow, a ratio of cryptocurrency's going market value to the annualized dollar value of coin dormancy, has dropped below $250,000. Dormancy refers to the average number of days each coin transacted remained dormant or unmoved – a gauge of market's spending pattern.

  • The area under $250,000 has marked major price bottoms in the past, as seen in the featured image provided by data analytics firm Glass node.

  • "Entity-adjusted dormancy flow recently bottomed out, showing a full reset of the metric. These events historically print at the cyclical bottom," Glassnode said in a report published on Monday.

  • "Low dormancy flow values indicate moments where market cap is undervalued relative to the yearly sum of realized dormancy, indicating moments where bitcoin is a value price," Glassnode added.

  • Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the total number of coins mined by the price of a single coin at any given time. At press time, bitcoin's market capitalization was $809.98 billion.

  • Bitcoin bottomed out in July 2021 and began a new bull run with the metric falling into the green zone. The cryptocurrency hit record highs near $69,000 on Nov. 10.

  • While the indicator has flipped bullish again, macro factors can play spoilsport. The U.S. December consumer price index scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC may inject volatility into the market. A higher-than-expected reading of 7.1% may spur bets of faster tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve and put fresh selling pressure on bitcoin.

Author

CoinDesk Analysis Team

CoinDesk is the media platform for the next generation of investors exploring how cryptocurrencies and digital assets are contributing to the evolution of the global financial system.

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