Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD may retest SMA200 weekly if $6,500 is not retaken any time soon.


  • BTC/USD is moving in the range with a bearish bias, a retest of SMA200 weekly is a possibility now.
  • Bitcoin performed better than stock indices and oil in Q1.

BTC/USD is hovering around $6,300, down 1% on a day-to-day basis. The first digital coin has been moving within a short-term bearish trend amid expanding volatility.

Bitcoin performed better than stock indices 

The first digital coin lost 10% of its value since the beginning of the year. While this may seem as a dismal results, as Bitcoin failed to prove its safe-haven status, other financial markets performed even worse. Thus Dow ended the quarter with a 23% drop, S&P 500 lost 20% down and Nasdaq Composite ended 14% lower. Brent lost 61% since the beginning of the year, while WTI is down 66%.

The rally that started at the beginning of the year pushed major stock indices to new record highs, while Bitcoin hit the area above $10,500. However, the COVID-19 outbreak and an oil price war wreak havoc on the financial markets. Bitcoin failed to perform as a save haven and crashed together with equities and other risk assets.

Experts still believe that Bitcoin is largely an uncorrelated asset, however, it is a relatively small asset class, which makes it vulnerable to big shocks and spikes of volatility. Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, commented in the interview with CNBC:

Bitcoin is still a relatively smaller asset class that is increasingly uncorrelated to traditional asset classes and this is in the process of being established as we speak. This is why I believe the current market environment is a big test for Bitcoin and given how young the asset class is, it has actually held up quite well.

BTC/USD: Technical picture

BTC/USD slipped below $6,300 after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above $6,500. While this development worsened the short-term picture, a recovery may be resumed as long as BTC stays above $6,000. This support level serves as a lower boundary of the recent consolidation channel. Once it is broken, the sell-off is likely to gain traction with the next focus on the recent low of $5,854. The critical bearish target comes at $5,600 (SMA200 weekly).

On the upside, the critical resistance at $6,500 is reinforced by the downside trend line. If it is cleared, the recovery may be extended towards psychological $7,000 with SMA100 weekly located just above this area.

BTC/USD weekly chart

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