Bitcoin consolidates below its record high with attention on the Bitcoin conference 2025

After rising to its record high of 111.9k last week, Bitcoin is consolidating between 107k and 110k as investors closely monitor developments from the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas and as institutional demand for spot BTC ETFs continues to provide underlying support. However, seasonality could be a reason for caution in the near term. 

Attention is on the potential for headline risk from the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, which will take place between May 27th and 29th. The conference features prominent figures, including US Vice President JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Junior, and Eric Trump.  

So far, headlines stemming from the Conference have emphasized the Trump administration’s commitment to Bitcoin and Trump’s support of the BITCOIN act, a bill proposing the acquisition of up to 1 million BTC over 5 years, which is set to be introduced to the Senate floor next week. 

Institutional and corporate demand Soar 

ETF inflows highlight persistent institutional demand, with spot BTC ETFs recording nine straight days of net inflows. BTC ETFs have seen just 3 days of net outflows since April 17. On a monthly basis, BTC ETF inflows for May have reached $5.77 billion, marking the third-largest monthly inflows since the ETFs started to trade in January 2024.  

Should BTC ETFs continue to experience persistent demand, this could help the Bitcoin price rise to record levels. 

In addition to rising institutional demand, corporate demand is also ramping up with more companies tapping capital markets for funds to buy cryptocurrencies following the success of (Micro) Strategy. Yesterday, Trump Media announced plans to raise $2.5 billion to buy cryptocurrencies.  

According to figures from BitcoinTreasuries.net, the number of listed companies holding Bitcoin has risen by 25% since the start of April, with 113 companies holding 800,000 Bitcoin valued at $88 billion. Continued corporate demand creates a constructive outlook. 

Seasonality gives reason to be cautious  

Bitcoin has rallied just shy of 15% in May, outperforming its historical average of 8.5% since 2013. However, seasonality shows June to be a less favourable month. Typically, June is the second worst performing month, with average losses of -0.35%, with only September worse, with losses of -3.77%. 

Given that BTC has experienced an almost 50% rally from its April 74.5k low, there could be some caution heading into June.  

BTC technical analysis 

Bitcoin continues to trade within a rising channel dating back to early April. Last week, BTC rose to a  record high of 111.9k before falling back to 107k, bringing the RSI out of overbought territory. From here, the price has recovered towards 109k.  

The RSI remains above 50, and the 50 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA in a golden cross signal favoring the bulls. 

Should BTC continue to grind higher above 110k and 111.9k, it could extend the rally towards the psychological level of 120k. 

Immediate support is at 107k, the weekly low. Below here, 105k comes into play ahead of 100k. 

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