Bitcoin bull market can survive $77K BTC price dip in 2025 – Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC $95,671) can drop to $77,000 and still preserve its bull market in 2025, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes.

In various X posts on Feb. 19, Ki suggested that a 30% BTC price drop would keep the current uptrend in line with historical norms.

CryptoQuant CEO sees no Bitcoin bear market “this year”

Bitcoin remains in a “bull cycle” despite a month of sideways BTC price action and a lack of impetus to reclaim $100,000.

According to CryptoQuant’s Ki, higher levels are set to persist throughout the coming year despite its slow start.

“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year,” he argued while discussing the cost basis of various Bitcoin investor cohorts. 

We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad. I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in past cycles.

Bitcoin investor cost basis data. Source: Ki Young Ju/X

A $77,000 local floor would still keep BTC/USD above its previous cycle’s all-time highs and has already formed a popular downside target for traders keen to see the market form a solid support basis.

Ki flagged several nearby aggregate cost bases of interest, including that of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors at $89,000 — which has functioned as support since November.

As Cointelegraph reported, new Bitcoin whales have an identical net buy-in level, giving it increasing importance as a turnaround point should a wider market dip occur in the future.

Traders on global exchange Binance have an aggregate breakeven point much lower at $59,000, while just beneath that, Bitcoin mining companies would fall into the red at $57,000.

Ki notes that “falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.” 

Post-halving performance demands BTC price gains

Elsewhere, CryptoQuant suggested that more BTC price upside was due this cycle, with  contributing analyst Timo Oinonen calling it “unfinished.”

The reason, he stipulated in a “Quicktake” blog post on Feb. 17, is that since last April’s block subsidy halving event, BTC/USD has only gained around 60%.

“Despite the continuing halving cycle, I'd expect to see a sell in May effect, a sideways summer, and elevated price levels by the last quarter. The positive Q4 seasonality has been repeated in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024,” Oinonen concluded. 

A deeper correction could be multiple months or even a year away.

BTC/USD comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant